EFTA02121449.pdf

From: Sent: Wed 11/20/2013 10:52:52 AM Subject: Early Tour 11.20.13 Good Morning ... European Markets off 20-70 bps (Spain -0.91%) ... NKY -0.33%, SHCOMP +0.82%, HSI +0.31%, KOSPI -0.71%, TWSE -0.67%, ASX -0.85% EUR 1.3532 (-0.05%) JPY 99.95 (+0.18%) EUR/JPY 135.25 (-0.23%) AUD 0.9404 (-0.32%) NZD 0.8342 (-0.34%) RUB 32.85 (-0.44%) US 10yr 2.72% Japan 10yr 0.62% Germany 10yr 1.75% Portugal 10yr 6.05% Italy 10yr 4.11% Spain 10yr 4.12% Futures: Dow -10, Nasdaq -2, S&P -2 DXY $80.62 (-8c) Crude $93.22 (-12c) Gold 51270.90 (- $2.60) Copper +0.13% Silver +0.13% Nat Gas +1.60% Asia markets skewed lower overnight with indices range bound and news flow fairly light. Hong Kong and China were firmer amid talks of RMB appreciation. PBOC governor Zhou said the central bank will basically end normal intervention in CNY and will broaden the Yuan's daily trading limit in an "orderly way". Japan equities trend lower throughout the day, continuing to correct some of last week's gains as the Nikkei ends in the red for the third straight session. JPY trading right around the 100 level ahead of the GPIF's external council meeting and the BOJ decision due tomorrow. Australia underperformed as banks and resource names weighed as well as Worley Parsons (Australia's biggest oil & gas engineer) trading -26% after cutting forecast driven by sluggish market conditions in Australia & Canada. European markets continue to consolidate and generally down 20-70 bps this morning (currently on lows of the session) with volume — 85% of 20d average. Bernanke spoke last night in DC and highlighted the benefits of a more transparent Fed in terms of policy communication and forward guidance (full text). He also stressed yet again that 6.5% unemployment is a threshold not a trigger, and once that threshold is crossed there are many other metrics that are still relevant to judge the overall health of the labor market (and so long as inflation remains close to target they can be very patient before they get comfortable actually raising rates). With respect to LSAPs he noted that they continue to monitor the risks/costs and efficacy associated with this tool but so far they have judged that the balance still favors it. He also mentioned that evidence of continued gains in the labor market (supported by a pickup in growth) was mixed at best back at the September no taper decision but they will continue to evaluate the situation at the coming meetings. Along those same lines, BOE Minutes are out this morning in the UK and they also stress that rates may remain low even after their 7.0% unemployment threshold is met. Big Macro day today in the US with FOMC minutes, EFTA_R1_00755767 EFTA02121449 Retail Sales, CPI and Home Sales all scheduled for release today. SPA's -2 handles = 1783 last. •*•ADT, DE, JCP, LOW, SJM, SPLS reports pre-open- - GMCR, LTD, BC, JACK, POST, WSM #'s post close— • La-Z-Boy Q2 epslrevs easily beat as net more than doubled & boosted dividend by 50% (trading +6%) • Barclays weighing sale of index business after approach from MSCI according to sources (Reuters) • GlaxoSmithKline agrees £425M partial stake sale of Aspen Pharmcare, keeps 12.4% stake (trading +0.60%) • Atlas Copco reaffirms FY outlook ahead of Capital Markets Day, sees steady demand (trading -0.80%) • Volvo reports Oct truck deliveries up +13% y/y to 20,897 units. NA & Europe solid. Latam below (trading +0.25%) • Sobi receives Kineret approval for the treatment of rare disease CAPS (trading unch) • ThyssenKrupp delays results, nears deal to sell US steel plant, cap increase spec (trading -2.0%) • Alcatel: JPM/Merrill launch private placement of 660 million pref subscription rights (trading -6.3%) • Zodiac FY EPS beats, debt better, aided by Aerospace/financial improvement/tax (trading +3.3%) • Metro continues to bounce (short covering) on Russian IPO speculation (trading +3.4%) • GEA: Reuters reporting company has launched sale of its heat exchange unit (€1.2bn) (trading 1-1.4%) • Soitec H1 revs inline (announced 10/21), EBITDA improvement, EBIT margin to remain negative (trading 4.0%) • Sevan Marine Q3 net income ahead, EBITDA slight below, Logitel rig #2 construction started (trading unch) • UK Mail Group H1 revs improve y/y, PBT better, H2 trading inline with exp, small lift of FY EPS (trading +6.8%) • Compugroup Q3 revs shade ahead, EBITDA in line, confirms 2013 forecasts (trading -1.7%) • Germany October PPI -0.2% m/m versus estimates +0.0% (-0.7% y/y versus estimates -0.6%) • Italy head of debt mgmt says expects domestic banks to cut bond holdings due to ECB's AQR • WorleyParsons (Australia oil & gas engineer) cuts forecast after delay in market turn (closed -26%) EFTA_R1_00755768 EFTA02121450  • Japan posts biggest October trade deficit on record (imports +26.1% y/y and exports +18.6% y/y) Leading European Sectors: Trav/Les +0.17%, Fin Services +0.13%, Oil & Gas +0.06% Lagging European Sectors: Telco -1.12%, Real Estate -0.63%, Banks -0.61% HLF Stiritz boosts stake — MODN mixed — YHOO boosts buyback Secondaries (announced/priced): NHI, CRNT, ACFC, NWBO, APPA, DWRE, YHOO (convert), GOOD, BXMT (convert), AEZ CN, CYTX, SSW, Q, LOV, GPK, ALUDS FP, PC IM (exchangeable bond) IPO's: N/A US Key Research: • BTIG initiates TWTR (neut), Cowen initiates XYL/FLS/NES (op's) & IEX/MWANVTS (mp's) GS upgrades OKS & initiates FEIC/PLL (neut), Imperial initiates VITC (op) & ALLE/LPI (in-line) • Stifel initiates PNR (buy) & XYL (hold), UBS upgrades LAYN & downgrades PDCO Wells downgrades HPY, BMO initiates RNF (mp) & cuts DKS, Key initiates CPSI (hold), DB cuts CHRW • Opco downgrades BA, Bernstein upgrades COG, Stephens initiates CRI (ow) & PLCE (ew) • Buckingham initiates DNKN (neut) & GMCR (buy), CS initiates MTW (op) Europe Key Research: ▪ BofAML downgrade ITV LN, RTL BB, MMT FP, SKYD GY, A3M SM, upgrade REL LN, PSON LN BofAML initiate RMG LN (n), downgrade DPW GY, ITX SM, upgrade ADN LN • UBS initiate RMG LN (5), Lampe downgrade GIB GY, RBC initiate RMG LN (sp), downgrade ITRK LN Barclays initiate UK homebuilders: ROW LN (ow), TW/ LN (ow), BKG LN (ew) EFTA_R1_00755769 EFTA02121451 • GRFD LN (ew), PSN LN (ew), BVS LN (uw), BWY LN (uw), BDEV LN (ow) • Barclays downgrade WDI CY, upgrade MEO CY, CBK downgrade GFK GY • DBK downgrade ECM LN, DZ Bank downgrade GWI1 GY • HSBC downgrade WEIR LN, AB1 GY, SMIN LN, upgrade EZJ LN, DNB NO • JPM upgrade KCOM LN, SMWH LN, downgrade DAY LN, Natixis downgrade GFT FP Soc Gen upgrade VAC FP, downgrade NDA SS, DANSKE DC Reporting Pre-Open: ADT, DE, JCP, LOW, SJM, SPLS Reporting Post-Close: GMCR, LTD, BC, DATE, DL, JACK, KONG, NED, NMIH, PLNR, POST, VVTV, WSM Economic Data: CPI / MBA Mortgage Applications / Retail Sales @ 8:30am, Existing Home Sales / Business Inventories @ 10am, Fed Minutes @ 2pm Fed Speakers: Dudley @ 10am (NYC), Bullard @ 12:10pm (Chicago) Conferences: Barcap Select Growth (NYC), MS Consumer (NYC), UBS Tech (Sausalito) Analyst/Investor Days: TRP, PVA, TEL, UAL, CHRW, ENOC, NFG, ATMI, HCLP, GDOT, NQ, AMGN Non-Deal Roadshows: ABTL, ACLS, ATVI, BA, BGC, CRUS, CSTE, EGN, EIX, EVRY, EXAS, KEYW, KONA, KOP, MDXG, MLM, SNAK, SNI, STZ, TRNX, UA Shareholder Meetings: NOK, CALI, UEPS, HAIN, MSFT, LTRX, CFNB, CSCO, PAA, NTSC, SHFL, LTON Equity/Mixed Shelfs: N/A EFTA_R1_00755770 EFTA02121452 Other Newspaper Articles & Stories WSJ cautious: Tesla (TSLA) WSJ • US funds place big bets on euro bank recovery FT • JPMorgan agrees $13bn settlement over mortgage securities FT • Democrats eye tax on US groups' overseas cash FT • Flurry of activity puts UK back on the map FT • Twin explosions leave 23 dead near Iran's embassy in Beirut FT • Israel has much to lose if Iran talks fail FT • Malawi 'cash-gate' corruption scandal unfolds like a thriller FT • Fate of German coalition hinges on SPD referendum FT • Skype founder's fund set to shun chat apps FT • Why the future looks sluggish FT • It was not sanctions that brought Iran to the table FT • Argentina trade secretary's resignation heralds policy shift FT • What does independence even mean for Scotland? FT • JP Morgan: end of the beginning Lex • China: initial plenum offerings Lex • EasyJet: flying high Lex • DSM / Patheon: scale story Lex • Obama Backs Piecemeal Immigration Overhaul WSJ • J.P. Morgan Is Haunted by a 2006 Decision on Mortgages WSJ • Deere Outlook Cloudy, Slight Chance of Sun WSJ • Price War Looms for Electronics WSJ • Second Life for an Old Oil Field WSJ EFTA_R1_00755771 EFTA02121453 • GOP Governors' Policies Up for 2014 Review WSJ • Price War Looms for Electronics WSJ • Australians Invest in New York Housing NYT • A Municipal Bankruptcy May Create a Template NYT • As Traders Trial Begins, Name of One Insider Stands Out NYT • A new generation of politicians is coming The Times • Weak Obama won't stop Iran going nuclear The Times • Bernanke:no end in sight to stimulus The Times • Emerging markets weigh on optimism The Times • £1,430,000,000,000 (that's £1.43 trillion): Britain's personal debt timebomb Independenf • Spanish ships could be mistaken for terrorists and shot at, Gibraltar minister wams Telegraph • High-impact tax cuts may just save Coalition from the exit come the election Telegraph • Fukushima nuclear disaster is warning to the world, says power company boss Guardian • Errors must be punished — but US justice is becoming arbitrary CitvAM • UK recovery is built on a debt bubble that cannot last — it's time for change CitvAM • We should applaud the corporate contrarians who reveal misconduct CitvAM Key Events This Week Thursday: US Flash PMI, ECB council meeting (Frankfurt), Philadelphia Fed, Markit US PMI, BOJ decision, Eurozone Flash PMI, Bofa Energy Conference (Miami), Earnings (ANF, GME, PDCO, TGT, GPS, INTO, ROST) Friday: JOLTs Job Openings, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index, Eamigs (PETM, FL) Key Events on the Horizon Nov 26 — MSCI changes effective on the close EFTA_R1_00755772 EFTA02121454 Nov 27 — Italy Senate to vote on expelling Berlusconi from Parliament Nov 28 — US Thanksgiving (market closed) Dec 5 — BOE & ECB rate decisions Dec 18 - FOMC rate decision Jan 15 - Current CR runs out Feb 7 — Debt ceiling deadline (Treasury can use extraordinary measures for - 1 month past this date) EFTA_R1_00755773 EFTA02121455 This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. 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