EFTA01367374.pdf

31 May 2015 Integrated Oil US Integrated Oils Mexico The 2013 energy reform is aimed at reducing the decline in oil production (which has been fallen by 3% since 2003 to 2450 mboe/d in 2014) that has resulted from a lack of investment in frontier plays particularly in the GoM deepwater (only 26 wells have been drilled in the deepwater). The implications of the energy reform in Mexico on production generally sit outside of our forecast period; however, updates around the bidding process will likely serve as a barometer for the viability of assets - particular the deepwater for which bids are due later this year. While capital investment into mature fields may accelerate the use of secondary and tertiary recovery techniques; 2014 production for identified mature onshore and offshore assets included in Round 1 represent only - 12°A of 2014 production. Recovery at the Samaria field (represents 60% of the available mature assets in 2014 production) has already moved past secondary techniques, limiting to recovery factors. In our view, the key risk to production in Mexico is a continued decline in the asset base particularly as exploration results over the last several years have failed to produce prospects material enough to combat the declining portfolio. IFigure 108: Mexico Production Outlook, 2014-2020e OrMid) Figure 109: Production by type (area chart of onshore vs. shallow vs, deepwater (Mb/d) 3000 - 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 sOnshore (Cony) • Shallow water (Cony) • Base • Growth Elds SaalP DOZICh• Bank VitalMotionst Sassy Palm Sint ISImelasatena ?EA Figure 110: Crude volume growth outlook by project Figure 111: 2017 Production Swing (Bear vs. Bull) of status (Mbld) -140 Mb/d 3000 SOD • 2245 2178 2500 2103 2000 1600 1000 1803 • 500 000 0 1000 • 2014 2015 2018 2017 2015 201. 1803 1104 I routhase mum &usds1Omar Assets Bew mauler Osalcorrent n. Prot* 0•Memr. atm timm sed in ran OFODOIS 44444* Soo Cam Sotto. Damns Oa Woodlacienzle. ICA Savor. Owner* Sept Med Meoten. Ice Page 56 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0058907 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00205091 EFTA01367374