EFTA00660780.pdf

From: "Sean J Lancaster" < To: "Sean J Lancaster" < Subject: This Month's Report: Business Jet Survey: Stable Overall, North America Improving Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2012 14:15:08 +0000 Attachments: BizjetSurvey_MN020212.pdf Inline-Images: image001.png; image002.png; image003.gif * Index at 41, unchanged from November: Our latest Business Jet Market Index came in at 41, in line with our prior survey from November as an uptick in small cabin offset slight declines in mid/large. Our straight up measure of absolute business conditions declined 2% to 4.0. Overall, it appears the market has held relatively stable despite continued economic uncertainty. * North America customer interest improving: While weak pricing and high levels of inventory remain a drag on the market, our survey continues to indicate that customer interest is improving and participants are optimistic looking out. Our overall customer interest score increased 3% to 55 this time with North America (59), Asia (58) and Latin America (52) reflecting incremental improvement, partially offset by declining interest in the Middle East (44) and Europe (31). Our participants indicated bonus depreciation did not meaningfully impact year end activity. " See positive risk-rewards for Bizjet stocks: While our survey of industry professionals and other key Bizjet market indicators have held stable, we believe North America Bizjet is improving off the bottom, driven by replacement demand postponed during the downturn. We see positive risk-rewards with the stocks that we think still incorporate little for business jets at current levels including Buy-rated COUGD/TXT. * Select charts: Chart 1: UBS Business Jet Market Index Chart 2: Overall Business Conditions Score 100 250 ZO 150 -43 rc 103 0 90 n x bs8 W mzmz z 1gin -8 .“ ti UBS it s iness Jet Make/ Index —*Rd Pert (RHS) ' Simple average BBIYGD/TXT clod< price performance index relative to 500 Source: UBS Business Jet Survey Sane: UBS Busitoss Jet Survey EFTA00660780 Best regards, Sean J. Lancaster Bristol Associates Inc. 0)+1-540-665-5135 direct 2+1-202-682-4000 ext 1130 Main Office +1-540-533-8183 Mobile I +1-202-682-1809 FAX +011-44 7896003013 UK CELL P. 4BRISTOL ASSOCIATES This message may contain confidential and/or legally privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient of the message, please destroy it. Any unauthorized dissemination, distribution or copying of the material in this message. and any attachments to the message. is strictly forbidden. (c) 2011 aN rights reserved. * Index at 41, unchanged from November: Our latest Business Jet Market Index came in at 41, in line with our prior survey from November as an uptick in small cabin offset slight declines in mid/large. Our straight up measure of absolute business conditions declined 2% to 4.0. Overall, it appears the market has held relatively stable despite continued economic uncertainty. * North America customer interest improving: While weak pricing and high levels of inventory remain a drag on the market, our survey continues to indicate that customer interest is improving and participants are optimistic looking out. Our overall customer interest score increased 3% to 55 this time with North America (59), Asia (58) and Latin America (52) reflecting incremental improvement, partially offset by declining interest in the Middle East (44) and Europe (31). Our participants indicated bonus depreciation did not meaningfully impact year end activity. * See positive risk-rewards for bizjet stocks: While our survey of industry professionals and other key bizjet market indicators have held stable, we believe North America bizjet is improving off the bottom, driven by replacement demand postponed during the downtum. We see positive risk-rewards with the stocks that we think still incorporate little for business jets at current levels including Buy-rated COUGD/TXT. * Select charts: Chart 1: UBS Business Jet Market Index Chart 2: Overall Business Conditions Score 100 2110 150% I I.im 0k 160 /I, EU g` x g` m. 7312.. tViltIgLi . ici; " UBS atiness Jet Make/ Index —*Rd Pert (RHS) EFTA00660781 ' Simple average BBIISDIXT slod vice performance index relative to 503 Source: UBS Business Jet Survey Sane: UBS Busiiess Jet Survey EFTA00660782