EFTA01380763.pdf

7 October 2015 Corporate Credit,Energy Patrols° Brasileiro S.A. Figure 12: Petrobras - Base-case Forecasts by DB Credit Research financial figures in DSO minions 2014* 2015E 2016E 2011E 2018E 2019E 2020E Net Revenue 143,210 91,062 79,920 82,370 84,685 87,107 89,641 COGS (without 08A) (97,545) (57,965) (51.067) (53.028) 154,448) (55,904) 157,349) Operating Expenses (without 0820) (14,239) 11088) (7,029) (6,917) (6,808) (6,702) (6,600) Dry Wells (2,604) (794) (794) (794) (794) 1794) (794) €W (eadedln.One-Off 2204 262122 23,215 21,010 21,631 22,615 23,707 24,230 Interest Expense (7,045) 5.493) (6,766) (6,484) (6.381) (6,505) (8.036) Interest Income 1,085 448 351 96 100 102 104 Cash Taxes 11.9021 11297) (1,727) (1,918) (2,227) (2494) (2.424) FF0 (Funds kern Operations) 22,193 17,662 13,622 14,121 14,921 15,605 15,288 Changes in WC (6,755) 119951 (5.0841 (720) (710) 1737) (764) capes 134.732) 125,000) (19,081) (19,058) (19.036) (19,015) 118,996) ASSm Sales. 10,000 3,000 - Dividends and ocher FCF nerns 1,825 - - - FCr (12.469) (9.333) (453) (2,651) (4.825) (4,147) (4,472) Debt Amortizations (10,033) (10,819) (11,578) (11.126) (16280) (22,999) (14,125) New Debt 10.943 13,771 5,000 13,902 21,723 27.266 12,797 Impact of FX on Cain Position (1,442) (318) (119) (119) (119) (119) Net Change in Cash & ECIUEV 9,630 (7222) (13,000) Cash &Spiny 25,822 14.000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 Total Debl 131.474 121,902 114,717 116,541 120,327 123.271 126,312 Net Debt 105,651 103,902 109,711 111,541 115,321 112,271 121,112 Total Debt / Retuning E8113.4 4.6 5.3 53 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 Net Debt / RecurringIBITDA 13 4.5 52 5.2 5.1 5.0 49 EBITDA/ Interest Expense 4.1 4.2 3.1 3.3 35 3.6 3.1 18iTDA Margin 20.1% 253% 26.3% 26.3% 26.7% 27.2% 27.7% Net Revenue- Domestic Crude Oil Exports 7,435 4.233 4,409 5.069 5.746 6,439 7,150 Net Revenue. Domestic Downstream Exports 6,381 4.773 4,332 3.027 2.130 1216 284 Not Revenue - Domestic Downstream ex. gasoline/diesel 24,505 122073 11,017 11,763 12,289 12826 13,374 Net Revenue- Domestic Gasoline 8, Diesel 65,176 44,979 37,879 40,002 41.842 43,775 45,806 Net Revenue- Domestic Nature/Gas 7,628 6312 6,154 6.422 6.606 6,734 6.966 Net Revenue • oomestichower and Other 19,578 10,884 9,169 9,156 9,169 9,163 9,198 Net Revenue.. internabonal 12.506 7,608 6561 6,931 6,902 6,873 6,844 EBITDA - Domestic E&P 33,036 15.516 I4,881 15,582 16,321 17,073 17,839 EBITDA - Domestic Downstream (9,270) 9,352 6554 6,344 7.098 7,407 7,773 ElInDA . Overhead and Other Businesses (1,746) 11.653) {806) (796) (785) {774) (762) Domestic E&P Production cameos) 2,458 2568 2,620 2472 2.726 2,780 2.836 DOilleStK Otl & NO. Prorixticn (kbPd) 2.034 2.125 2,168 2,211 2.255 2.301 2,347 DOnstillic011& Ma.. Procknfion growth, yoy 6.3% 4.6% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Domestic Relining Production (Mod) 2,169 1.142 2,142 2,142 2,142 2,142 2,142 Domestic Refining Production growth, yoy 2.1% .1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% OA% 0.0% Domestic Net Exports (kbpd) (448) (170) (127) (135) (296) 1357) (419) Domestic Net Exports (15Cosn) 124.995) (12.6031 (11.220) (12.885) (13,806) (14,741) 145,6911 Domestic Sales Volume (cheeps° 2,998 2.823 2,826 2,910 2.968 3.027 3,088 Dcenestk Sales Volume Growth, yoy 4% -6% 0% 3% 2% 2% 2% Brent Reference Prke (1150Thoe 99 SS SO 50 50 SO SO BRI../USD (eop) 2.67 4.10 4.25 4.46 0.69 4.92 5.17 11111,1USD (wig 2.36 3.35 4.20 4.31 4.46 4.59 4.73 %of Net Revenue In BRL 58% 61% 59% 60% 605E 61% 61% %of Cash Cogs and 5G&A in SRL 37% 37% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% DOMeStKGascitine Refinery Posy Change in 861. yoy 4% 4% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% Gasoline Refinery Price (Brazil PS. US) .9% 20% 12% 15% 18% 22% 25% Domestic Diesel Refinery Price (mange in SRI, yoy 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% Diesel Refinery Once (knit vs. US) .7% 23% 15% 18% 22% 25% 29% Sane Dana* on Page 10 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0079292 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00225476 EFTA01380763