EFTA02493159.pdf

From: jeffrey E. <jeevacation@gmail.com> Sent: Tuesday, July 28, 2015 1:32 PM To: Melanie Spinella Subject: Fwd: Short EUR / Long GBP ??? Forwarded messa e From: Date: Tuesday, July 28, 2015 Subject= RE: Short EUR / Long GBP To: Brad Wechsler "Jeffrey Epstein (jeevacation@gmail.com)" <=a href="mailto:jeevacation@gmail.com">jeevacation@gmail.com> Cr: Barrett Team >, Richard Joslin Brad </=pan> Given that we don =80 t yet have an ISDA on file we should consider using a structured note=to implement the EURGBP trade. Nicole had sent through pricing yesterday. = would recommend $500K-$1MM. </van> Paul </=pan> </=pan> =span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans- s=rif";color:#5f5f5f"> <=> =span style="font-size:8.0pt;font-family:"Verdana","sans-s=rif";color:fflf497d">Paul Barrett I Managing Director Global Investment Op=ortunities Group I J.P. Morgan Securities LLC I J.P. Morgan Private Bank I =J.P. Morgan Chase Bank N.A.=/u> 320 Park Avenue, 14th Floor, New York, NY=10022 I T: (212) 622-2770 F: (212) 310-0108 I paul.s.barrett@jpmorgan.com cjavascript:_e(%7B%7D;cvmr/paul.s.barrett@jpmorgan=com');> </=pan> NOT =.14 OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION: For informationakpurposes only. This report does not represent an official account of=the holdings, balances, or transactions made in your account and is being =rovided at your request. Please refer to EFTA_R1_01616289 EFTA02493159 your monthly account statement for the official record of all of your a=count activities. For question, please call your J.P. Morgan represe=tative. In discussion of options and other strategies, results and risks =re based solely on hypothetical examples cited; actual results and risks w=11 vary depending on specific circumstances. Investors are urged to consider carefully whether option or option-related=products in general, as well as the products or strategies discussed herei= are suitable to their needs. In actual transactions, the client's=counterparty for OTC derivatives applications is JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., and affiliates. For a copy of the "C=aracteristics and Risks of Standardized Options" booklet, please c=ntact your JPMorgan Advisor. This email is confidential and subject to important disclaimers a=d conditions including on offers for the purchase or sale of securities, accuracy and completeness of information, viruses, con=identiality, legal privilege, and legal entity disclaimers, available at http://www.jpmorga=.com/pages/disclosures/email <http://www=jpmorgan.com/pages/disclosures/email> . =/p> c/=pan> From: Wolf, Ni=ole Sent: Monday, July 27, 2015 3:05 PM To: Brad Wechsler Cc: Barrett Team Subject: Short EUR / Long GBP Hi Brad, Here is our latest piece on short EUR vs. long GBP. = will follow-up with some structure pricing that we like. </=pan> Nicole Trade Idea: Short Euro / Sterling (i=e. Long GBP vs Short Euro) * =C2* Recent comment= from several Bank of England (BoE) members suggest the time for rate hike= in the UK is approaching. As a result, the market is repricing the =iming of the first rate hike from mid-2016 to Q12016. 2 EFTA_R1_01616290 EFTA02493160 o =C2 =80 In the current circumstances there is no need to wait to raise rates =ecause of a risk management approach and run the risk of inflation oversho=ting target.... In my view, the decision as to when to start such a process of adjustment will likely come into sharper r=lief around the turn of this year." - Mark Carney (BoE Governor), 16 July 2015 </=> <=p> * =C2* Additionally, =he U.K. economy is improving rapidly (see charts below). o =C2 Retail sales are growing at of 4.8%yoy, 3mma — the strongest run rate since 2004. o =C2 Wage growth ha= finally started to pick up with private sector wages up 3.8%yoy, 3mma, up=from sub-2% in late 2014 and the strongest pace since 2008. o =C2 Inflation is l=w at 0.0%yoy, largely due to the oil price drag, but is expected to pick u= significantly into year-end as the base effect fades out and growth drags=prices higher. Consensus forecasts are for a 1.6% rate by end 2016 and 1.9% by end 2017.=/p> * =C2* At the same ti=e, the ECB is in the beginning of a mandated period of suppressed interest=rates and quantitative easing which is on plan to last through September 2=16, if not extended thereafter. * =C2* Given the mone=ary policy divergence between the ECB (extremely loose) and the BoE (preparing for tightening), GIO expects GBP to appreciate against the Euro over t=e next 6 months by up to 5%. Risks to the Tra=e * =C2" Although the B=E is approaching rate hikes, strong data over the next few months is neede= to corroborate their move. Notably, if CPI prints surprise to the downsid= on August 18th and September 15th, the argument for BoE rate hikes and GBP strengt= will weaken. * =C2* Some very infl=ential BoE members such as Andrew Haldane remain dovish and continue to hi=hlight the risks of moving too soon. To the extent that they can persuade =ther members to refrain for a few months, the market may price out rate expectations back to mid-2016. * =C2" A substantial =BP trade-weighted appreciation could depress imported prices and push out =ate hikes. The trade-weighted GBP appreciated 8% in O12015 leading some B=E doves to express concerns. 3 EFTA_R1_01616291 EFTA02493161 Source: JP Morgan a=d Bloomberg, July 2015 This material is in=ended as a general market commentary, and not intended to be a forecast of=future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. The opi=ions expressed are those of GIO based on current market conditions and may differ from those of other J.P. Morga= employees and affiliates, which are subject to change without notice. =AO This information in no way constitutes J.P. Morgan Research and should =ot be treated as such. The views expressed may differ from those contained in J.P. Morgan research reports. The inves=ment products and services described herein may not be suitable for all cl=ents, you should speak to your financial representative before engaging in=any investment product or strategy. Outlooks and pas= performance are not reliable indicators of future results.<=span> Bank products and s=rvices, are offered by JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. and its affiliates. Secur=ties are offered by J.P. Morgan Securities LLC, member NYSE, FINRA and SIP=. INVESTMENT PRODUCTS= NOT FDIC INSURED • NO BANK GUARANTEE • MAY LOSE VALUE Nicole Wolf I J.P. Morgan Secur=ties LLC I J.P. Morgan Private Bank I JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. 1320 Park Ave= Floor 14, New York, NY 10022 I T: 212 622 2851 =C2 NOT AN OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION: For informational p=rposes only. This report does not represent an official account of t=e holdings, balances, or transactions made in your account and is being pr=vided at your request. Please refer to your monthly account statement for the official record of all of your acco=nt activities. For question, please call your J.P. Morgan representa=ive. In discussion of options and other strategies, results and risks =re based solely on hypothetical examples cited; actual results and risks w=lI vary depending on specific circumstances. Investors are urged to consider carefully whether option or option-related=products in general, as well as the products or strategies discussed herei= are suitable to their needs. In actual transactions, the client's=counterparty for OTC derivatives applications is JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., and affiliates. For a copy of the "C=aracteristics and Risks of Standardized Options" booklet, please c=ntact your JPMorgan Advisor. 4 EFTA_R1_01616292 EFTA02493162 This email is confidential and subject to important disclaimers a=d conditions including on offers for the purchase or sale of securities, accuracy and completeness of information, viruses, con=identiality, legal privilege, and legal entity disclaimers, available at http://www.jpmorga=.com/pages/disclosures/email <http://www=jpmorgan.com/pages/disclosures/email> . r-/p> The mate=ial on this page was prepared by an Associated Person with responsibilitie= for the marketing and sale of swaps and OTC financial derivatives. All qu=stions related to swaps and OTC financial derivatives referenced in these materials must be directed to Nicole Wolf<=> =C2 These in=icative prices are provided for information purposes only, do not represen= a commitment from JPMorgan to transact at those prices, or at any price, =n the future, and are intended solely for your use. These indicative prices were created as of a specific "rime and market condition and do not represent (i) the actual terms at whic= new transactions could be entered into, (ii) the actual terms at which ex=sting transactions could be liquidated or unwound, or (iii) the calculation or estimate of an amount that would b= payable following the early termination of transactions pursuant to any m=ster trading agreement to which we are parties. JPMorgan expressly d=sclaims any responsibility for (i) the accuracy of the models or estimates used in deriving the prices, =(ii) any errors or omissions in computing or disseminating the prices, and=C2 (iii) any uses to which the prices are put. The indicative pri=es do not take into account any specific ISDA credit terms, client credit ratings or credit reserves or charges that mig=t be relevant to a dealer negotiating a firm pricing level. Note tha= the transaction that is the subject of these indicative prices does not h=ve JPMorganChase credit approval. This document is not intended as investment or other advice or as a recommendat=on that you, any of your affiliates or any other person participate in any=transaction. It does not generally constitute an offer to buy or sel=, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. This email is confidential and subject to important disclaimers and conditi=ns including on offers for the purchase or sale of securities, accuracy a=d completeness of information, viruses, confidentiality, legal privilege, =nd legal entity disclaimers, available at http://www.jpmorgan.com/pages=disclosures/email chttp://www.jpmorgan.c=m/pages/disclosures/email> =AO please note The information contained in this communication is<=r>confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may constitute insid= information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is =he property of JEE Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of thiscommunication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be un=awful. If you have received this communication in error, please notify =s immediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to jeevacation@gmail.com <mailto:jeevac=tion@gmail.com> , and destro= this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachments. =opyright -all rights reserved 5 EFTA_R1_01616293 EFTA02493163