EFTA01760033.pdf

From: Office of Terje Rod-Larsen Sent: Wednesday, May 1, 2013 2:33 PM Subject: IPI Middle East Update - May 1, 2013 =b>INTERNATION=L PEACE INSTITUTE IPI Middle East Update =/span> May 1, 2013 </=:p> Egyp=: Tensions between the government and the judiciary were reignited=when the Islamist-dominated Upper House of Parliament (the country's=temporary legislative authority) moved quickly to consider a series of jud=cial reforms that have met with wide skepticism and sparked a judicial rev=lt. If passed, the reforms would end the terms of more than 3,000 judges b= lowering their retirement age. The Muslim Brotherhood's unofficial =tance claims that this move would "cleanse" the country'= political arena of the "remnants" of the ousted regime, while=the opposition has interpreted this as a purge of lawyers and judges who h=ve, in recent times, voiced criticism of President Morsi and consider it a=other power grab aimed at consolidating the party's grip. The episod= led to the resignation of Justice Minister Ahmed Mekki—considered a= Islamist himself—and also brought new waves of violence to the stre=t, near the presidential palace and at the Supreme Constitutional Court. c=o:p> As the political=turmoil continues to rock Egypt's transition, the country continues =o deal with further economic woes and social malaise. On the former issue,=press reports indicate that President Morsi may be looking eastward for a =izeable loan from Russia to help give his foreign currency reserves a much= needed boost in the wake of an ever- elusive IMF loan. On the latter front= the abrupt closure of Egypt Independent, an independent English da=ly and go-to source of news for international readers, once again raised q=estions about press freedom in the supposedly democratic post-Mubarak Egyp=. &nb=p; Syria<=u>: It appears that the "red line" which the Obama adminis=ration had declared over the use of chemical weapons in Syria has been cro=sed after the United States announced on April 25th that such w=apons—specifically, the agent sarin—were likely to have been u=ed on a "small scale" by the Syrian government against its own=people. The confirmation came after weeks of speculation about the issue, =ost recently after confirmed Israeli intelligence reports. Though "a=l options are on the table," a military intervention is not imminent= But a shift in policy is being hotly debated in the media given that the =S had previously described the use of chemical weapons as a "game-ch=nger." T=is latest development comes about following a week-long offensive by gover=ment forces on the Sunni district—and former rebel stronghold—=f ftleidat al-Fadel outside Damascus, which culminated in one of the bloodi=st incidents of EFTA_R1_00064171 EFTA01760033 the conflict. News agencies reported that more than 100 we=e killed (some activists claim the death toll was much higher), many of wh=m were civilians. As the death toll rises, the humanitarian situation cont=nues to worsen to the extent that the UN high commissioner for refugees an=ounced last week that approximately 8,000 Syrians flee the country every d=y. &n=sp; Jorda=: While there are conflicting reports, it appears that Jordan may =ave given the Israeli government a green light to send drones into Syria t=rough Jordanian airspace. The drones are intended to collect information a=d conduct reconnaissance missions but are also capable of carrying missile=. If this is true, it could indicate a willingness by Jordan to counter th= spillover risks more actively, particularly after the April 18th announcement that the Pentagon would be sending about 200 troops and arm= planners to Jordan. Palestinians: International support for Hamas will get=another boost during the Turkish prime minster's upcoming visit to G=za. While the visit was discouraged by US Secretary of State John Kerry, T=rkish Prime Minister Erdogan remains set on visiting at the end of May. Th= visit, as well as a recent trip by Palestinian Authority President Mahmou= Abbas to Turkey, has led to press speculation that Turkey is positioning =tself to assume what has been Egypt's role as an honest broker in of=-discussed reconciliation talks between Hamas and Fatah. Alternatively, th= Turkish prime minister may be trying to balance his recent acceptance of =n apology from Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu for Israeli Defense=Forces' stopping of the Gaza blockade-busting ship, Marmara, i= 2010. The Marmara incident led to the death of nine Turkish citizen= and generated a significant rift between Israel and Turkey, two otherwise=long-time political and economic partners. Iraq: Above all else, the recent=situation in Iraq has recently been marked by a wide and deepening sectari=n conflict. As Iraqis went to the polls for provincial elections on April =0th, the first elections since US troops withdrew, deadly secta=ian violence spread across the country. As of April 26th the UN=Mission in Iraq estimated the toll of the dead and wounded across the coun=ry to be in the hundreds and the UN envoy to Iraq called for both sides to=show "restraint." The clashes are among the fiercest since the=US pullout from the country in 2011. Bahrain: Ten weeks and fifteen rounds=of talks later, the Bahraini National Dialogue continues. According =o press reports, the dialogue faces some procedural issues regarding the a=enda, structure, and outcome of the talks. Some believe that the issues sh=uld be put forth in a referendum while others affirm that the king should =e allowed to exercise his executive rights and decide on the ultimate proc=ss himself. There has been much speculation that Prince Salman will enter =he dialogue, though he says that he will only "step in" at the=necessary time. Bahrain's human rights record has received internati=nal attention: a top-level European parliamentary delegation visited Manam= on April 29th to discuss human rights, among other issue=, and the Bahraini government criticized as 'biased' the annua= US State Department report on the rights situation in the kingdom. =o:p> =span style=lont-size:8.0pt5For more information please contact:c/=:p> Maureen Quinn at 2 EFTA_R1_00064172 EFTA01760034 * The Middle East Update presents a summary of on-going development= in the Middle East based on information from the local and international =ress, expert analyses, and other sources. This service is provided by the =nternational Peace Institute (IP° exclusively to donors to its Middle Eas= program. The views expressed here do not necessarily represent thos= of WI. = 3 EFTA_R1_00064173 EFTA01760035