EFTA02513868.pdf

From: Daniel Sabba c > Sent: Friday, January 9, 2015 1:53 AM To: Jeffrey Epstein Subject: Fw: EOD Commodities Note - 8 Jan [C] Classification: Confidential Vol in crude contin=es to collapse From: Prateek Jain Sent: 01/08/2015 09:15 PM GMT Sub=ect: EOD Commodities Note - 8 Jan Oil A relatively quiet day in Crude today. We hovered ar=und unchanged for most of the day before selling off in the afternoon and resting 50$ BRE again. However, we failed to break it and rallied towards u=changed for the close, perhaps off the back of some index buying. Newswise, Feb Azeri BTC loadings will be up=a whopping 11% m/o/m to 821kbd. Interestingly, there is apparently some fl=ating storage interest happening as well, as some major phys trading firms=have booked long term tankers for this as long term charter rates are cheaper and thus make the economics of=storage look good. The window was again weak with ekofisk and brent offerer down a bit. In other news, RTRS cites GCC "sources" saying th=t there is no chance of OPEC cut even though oil has dipped to 505...Stateside, we learned yesterday that the Seaway Tw=n is moving 100% heavy crude. Furthermore, USGC diffs weakened again, with=LLS now trading 1$ above WTI. In the morning WTI spreads were quite bid, b=t that abated towards the end of the day. The arb did however stay bid throughout the day, as the fad that=LLS/WTI is tight at 1$ means that there is more room BRE to discount vs LL= so as to place those Jan and Feb overhang cargoes in the US. In politics =and, the Senate committee voted 13-9 to have Keystone "bypass" presidential approval. So if th= Senate passes this bill (which it should as it has 60 co sponsors), Obama=may have to veto it. It is not clear that the Senate has 67 votes needed t= overturn the veto, so this should be interesting to follow...In products land, distillate bounced back a bit after yest=rday's post stats ugly showing, perhaps off the realization that the=stats didn't add up along with the extremely cold weather giving NG = (rare) bid as well... =/p> Oil Vols Another day of carnage in oil vols today. Early morn=ng NY vols were down 0.4-0.5 through the curve, but a one way selling strerk started just before the open and all the bids out there started getting =it. As an example Dec5 atm straddles started the day 1465/1505, were 1405/1450 at 9am, and were 1350/1390 laterrin the day. Within 2 hours of open, vols were down about 3 vols across the=curve..and stayed there for most of the day till about 1:30pm when futures=took a quick leg lower.. prompt vols traded 1.5% higher than close at that time and Jun5 was up 2% from th= lows. However, with a quick rally back vols started fading again and ende= 1.5.2.5 lower. EFTA_R1_01647188 EFTA02513868 Wings got smashed again and put skew collapsed quick=y. 8000 lots of $40puts in WTI Mar15 were sold on the screen, which is qui=e an impressive volume outside floor trading.. =/P> &=bsp; &nbs=; =nbsp; WTI (/change) &=bsp; &nb=p; BRE (ichange)=/span> 615 &nbs=; &=bsp; 50.40% -1.60% &=bsp; 44.00% -2.60% H15 &nbs=; =nbsp; &nb=p; 45.50% -2.40% = 43.70% -1.10% M15 &nbs=; =nbsp; 41.40% -2.10% &nbs=; &=bsp; 38.20% -2.60% Z15 &=bsp; 35.15% -1.60% &nbs=; 33.10% -2.15% Z16 &nbs=; &=bsp; 28.60% -2.00% =nbsp; 28.50% -1.80% Index No rhyme or reason to flat price action today.<=o:p> Energy up, precious down, ags down, sorts up, base m=xed. Contributing to the choppy action was day one the SP=S and BCOM index rebalance and it was quite choppy during the closing bell= Estimated rebalance numbers are next to today'= performance grid. Only 4 more days to go Sean Kemery Base Metals</=:p> 3m Ivls &n=sp; dod change &nb=p; support &nb=p; resistance Al $1832 &=bsp; +$42 &nbs=; = $1800 = $1900 Cu $6101 &=bsp; -$11 &n=sp; &nbs=; $6000 &nbs=; $6200 Zn $2160 &=bsp; +$27 = &=bsp; $2125 &=bsp; $2200 Ni $15,550 = +$0 &nb=p; &=bsp; $15,000 &=bsp; $15,650 Pb $1851 &=bsp; +$1 = &n=sp; $1830 &nbs=; $1900 2 EFTA_R1_01647189 EFTA02513869 The base complex was up in the morning, with most me=als rallying around 12:30, retracing in the afternoon then rallying to the=close. Gains in stock markets, Fed confidence in the US econom= and the increasing likelihood of aggressive stimulus in Europe are holding up the complex, but the re-wieghting of com=odity indexes is likely to result in a sell off in Nickel Ali and Zinc bet=een 8.14 Jan. Aluminium prices recovered as shorts were covered. &nb=p;Commerzbank expects to see a further rebound in coming days.Copper prices are suffering due to the sell off in the ener=y market. Nitaxis sees the Chinese Stare Reserve Bureau cutting its =urchases from 600-700 kMT in 2014 to - 300 kMT in 2015 as domestic supply c=tches up with demand. Zinc open interest is looking very high leading Macquarie to suggest that prices may be going=down this quarter. Shanghai Aluminium on warrant stocks are down 3.52% =o 46.9 kMT. LME Aluminium on warrant stocks are flat at 1852.2 kMT. Shangh=i Copper on warrant stocks are up 0.97% to 31.1 kMT. LME Copper stocks are=up 0.67% to 155.1 kMT. LME Nickel stocks are down 1.21% to 324.4 kMT. Copper Vols are up 0.28% in the front, Ali Vols unch= Nickel Vols are unch in the front, up 0.27% in the back, Lead and Z=nc Vols unch Upcoming Data 8/1- EC Consumer Confidence-Sury -10.9, Actual -1=.9, Prior -10.9 8/1- US Initial Jobless Claims-Sury 290k, Actual 294k, Prior 298k Regards, Prateek Please=access the link for disclaimer: http://globalmarkets.db.com/new/content/3045.html &=bsp; Deutsc=e Bank External Business Conduct Standards can be found at www.DB.com/=oddfrank This communication may contain confid=ntial and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communication<=r> in error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this communication. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the<=r> material in this communication is strictly forbidden. Deutsche Bank does not render legal or tax advice, and the information contained in this communication should not be regarded as such. 3 EFTA_R1_01647190 EFTA02513870