EFTA01459582.pdf

15 January 2016 Global Economic Perspectives: China's evolving FX policy Key Economic Forecasts Real GDP CPI Conant ac Final bal... % growth" % growth' % ODE 15 GDP' 2015F 2016F 2017F 2015F 2016f 2017F 2015E 2018E 2017F 2015F 20169 20:7F US 2A 1$ 2.1 0.2 13 2.3 -24 -2£ -3.0 -2.4 -2.2 -2.1 Japan 0.7 1.1 0.8 08 QZ 2.1 12 3.6 3.8 •6.0 -42 4.1 Euroland 1.5 1.6 1.5 0.1 g.g 1.8 30 27 2.3 22 2...Q -1.6 Germany 1.7 1.9 1.6 0.2 12 1.7 1.1 Le 73 0.3 0.0 0.0 France 1.1 1.4 1.6 0.1 0.8 1.3 .0 i .0 5 -0.6 48 -3.4 -2.9 Italy a./ 14 1.0 0.1 0_5 1.5 LI Li 1.8 Lag -2.4 -2.1 Span 3.2 28 2.3 -0.6 ga 1.6 1.5 I0 1.4 -4.3 -3.3 -2.6 UK 2,01 2.6 2.3 Q_Q LI 1.9 4.3 .3.1 -3.0 A2 :La -1.0 Sweden 32 2.7 28 2.4 IS 1.9 gli fii 6.6 _LE J..4 -0.6 Denmark .1...6 7...7 1.8 9.1 1.4 12 7.5 7.0 6.5 ./..g /5 -2.0 Norway 14 1.4 2.2 22 2.4 2.3 7.5 7.0 6.5 7.5 7.0 6.5 Poland 3.4 3.6 3.5 4.9 gg 1.6 -1.1 -113 -1.8 -29 .2A -2.7 Hungary 2.7 2.4 3.3 0.0 2.1 2.7 3.1. 3.3 2.5 -2.4 -2.2 -2.0 Czech Republic 4.5 2.2 3.2 DJ 1.6 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.7 7; 9 -14 -1.2 Australia 2.3 3.0 3.4 1.6 7.6 2.2 '4.5 4.1 Canada 1.2 LI 25 1.1 2.0 2.2 72.12 -1.8 9.2 -0.1 Asia (ex Japan' 6.1 6.1 6.3 2.4 22 2.8 27 2.2 1.9 40 13.1 -3.1 India 7.3 7.6 7.8 49 52 4.8 .1.3 -1.6 09 4.8 4.7 China 7.0 6.7 6.7 1..4 1.8 1.8 3.3 28 2.5 -32 :LE -3.5 Latin America -0.8 S. 2.1 LEL: 18. 7 196 8.0 L -2.6 -7.3 -5.3 Brazil 31t IS 1.0 9.0 0.7 6.6 •al -1.7 -1.8 48 &A -72 EMEA IA 1.9 2.6 8.7 09 5.9 -9.9 Ail -0.6 .54 -4.4 -3.6 Russia -3.7 -0.7 0.6 156 t2 7.1 12 5.0 5.0 -2.7 -2.1 -1.6 G7 15 17 IS 0.3 2.1 World' 3.1 22 3.6 3.4 32 4.2 r Forecasts: (37 quarterly GDP growth % pop saadannual %Yob. 15 02'15 03 15 0415F 0116F 0216F 0316F 0416F 2015F 201 6E ;;) i?F US 06 at. 20 0.5 LE 2.2 11 2s 24 1.8 2.1 Japan 44 -05 I.0 10 1.4 1_Q I6 1.8 0.7 1.1 0.8 Eur001.0 2.2 1.6 12 14 1.7 1.7 1.9, 18 12 1.6 1.6 Germany 1.0 1.8 13 14 22.1 0_5 Z. 2_1 7.7 1.9 1.6 France 78 01 10 013 20 1.6 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.6 Italy 17 11 le 1-$3 1.7 1.6 14. IS 02 IA 1.0 UK 1.5 2.2 ts 2.5 2.6 26 25 15 24 25 2.3 Canada .0 ? .0.3 2,7 03 20 1.2 2.7 30 1.2 LT 24 G7 14 23 16 2.2 Li ^ 21 1.8 12 1.8 al Leese lerreasti ar at Veen bean Rend en MI VI& Bad Ages Oral upend releseni. teat unclothed learn re.? Onarrea e Parsee 1000t eons real kr ranee. day MIMS dale ease Ganaliny Ip MCP teal Surreer• Oraerriar Mid Me UR la) Cann liCtOunl hewer ter FWD arra cooed* ordure en niece*, tronnetens 41, el,r<sqle tom.(*Weed Ned's. ea wJ • r I nr Sown NaronearrtenNte Cana* fent Rematch Page 2 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0 120086 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00266270 EFTA01459582