EFTA01112877.pdf

UBS Global Equity Research Americas UBS Investment Research Aerospace UBS Business Jet Update Sec!cr Commet North America Turns the Corner 12 January 2012 ■ Up double digits off bottom While the bizjet market has been flat at low levels, our analysis indicates North America is improving with deliveries up double-digits off the bottom. We believe the recovery in North America is being driven by replacement demand postponed during the downturn. David E. Strauss Ana .s1 ■ Led by low end of market The nascent recovery in North America is being led by the low end of the market, small and midsize aircraft. The large cabin market has seen a much smaller decline Darryl Genovesi in North America while benefitting from growth in China//India and Latin A st America, which haven't really grown for small and midsize. ■ Cessna most levered to North America recovery Ryan Thackston The small and midsize markets are most levered to North America, which still Associate A st represents 60% of combined small and midsize deliveries as compared to 30% for large. Cessna, with 60.70% of its deliveries and installed base in North America, is the most levered to a recovery in North America bizjets. ■ Europe lower still, but just 10% of market now While North America appears to have turned the corner, most of the upside has been offset by a still declining Europe along with recent weakness in the Middle East. However, Western Europe now represents just 10% of industry shipments, minimizing further downside for the overall market. This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 7. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. EFTA01112877 UBS Business Jet Update 12 January 2012 North America Bizjet Improving Our analysis indicates that the North America market, which is key to any meaningful business jet recovery, is improving with deliveries up double-digits off the bottom. While North America appears to have turned the corner, most of this upside has been offset by a still declining Europe along with recent weakness in the Middle East. However, with Western Europe a much smaller proportion now at just 10% of total industry shipments, 2012 is likely to see higher industry deliveries if the North America recovery sustains, which we think it can. Chart 1: Rolling 12•Month Unit Delivery Growth by Region (Market) 25 0 ■ North America (25) ■ ■ Western Europe (50) Emerging E1AEA (75) • Asia (100) ($25) - ■ Lail America (ISO) (175) 2008 2009 2010 Sept-11 Source: ASCEND and UBS estimates The nascent recovery in North America is being led by the low end of the market, small and midsize aircraft. The large cabin market has seen a much smaller decline in North America while benefitting from growth in China//India and Latin America. which haven't really grown for small and midsize. Chart 2: Rolling 12-Month Unit Delivery Growth by Region (Small/Midsize) 75 50 25 1 r 0 • Nat America (25) ■ Western Europe (50) Emerging EMEA (75) ■ Asia (100) ■ Lain America (125) (150) (175) 2008 2009 2010 Sep111 Source: ASCEND and UBS estimates UBS 2 EFTA01112878 UBS Business Jet Update 12 January 2012 Chart 3: Rolling 12-Month Unit Delivery Growth by Region (Large) 50 40 30 20 • Nort America 10 0 IN• , ■ Western Europe Emerging EMEA (10) (20) ' ■ Asia ■ Lath America (30) (40) (50) 2008 2009 2010 Sep 1I Source: ASCEND and UBS estimates The small and midsize markets are most levered to North America, still representing 60% of combined small and midsize deliveries as compared to 30% for large. Chart 4: 2010 Deliveries by Region (SmalliMidsize) Chart 5: 2010 Deliveries by Region (Large) Latin America Latin America 11% 14% Asia North America 7% 29% Asia Emerging 15% EMEA 12% North America 60% Western Emerging Western Europe EMEA Europe 10% 19% 23% Source: ASCEND and UBS estimates Source: ASCEND and UBS estimates UBS 3 EFTA01112879 UBS Business Jet Update 12 January 2012 Table 1: Deliveries by Cabin Class and Region YLJ 2000 2001 1002 20(0 2004 2005 10)6 007 3006 20(0 2010 2010 YTI) 2011 TM 002911 tkrt, Arrona IM 137 72 .0 29 121%) We0o, E‘401:0 26 36 31 20 MX) fawnEu.4p* 10 9 175%) 1.10defast 0 44/48 7 4 4 175%) Cr001-04 0 4 103% PAC Ner 3 6 3 • UM AMC= 22 46 33 I no%) (1. 17.)1•11 JO?. [Ice%) Total VU 2 13 259 223 173 III SI 11111 Small MOO 2101 2002 2003 2004 2006 2036 ZOO? 2031 2009 2010 2010 V7D all TN GROS /Wt. AtteRS MO 614 290 97 293 220 241 249 216 100 102 9) 7 44% EIM3P0 45 53 SS 2 32 46 71 7 92 27 63% (artmEuepc 4 3 10 9 I 26 20 133%) kW <Ear. 3 4 2 4 (100%) AITC4 6 3 S 6 2 (ION C•n91.04 9 2 10 1 APAC cref 4 3 4 16 6 2 00011 UlnAnono 24 33 17 27 3 75 19 8 211% WIXOM 4,01 3 2 3 1 1 nt MISS 348 313 311 754 NG 313 378 411 318 5 151 75 1 57% 1140.6 2000 2001 2032 2003 203. 2006 6:06 2007 6:06 200) 2010 20109T0201 CIO do*. Wet krone., '32 12 142 96 ID? 144 140 1BI II? 91 VS 39 2 6% Wear Euvpo 12 I ID 13 20 37 36 0 22 12 IVA) ESOrnEy994 4 2 5 15 2 24 20 9 • 1.40def as; 2 0 2 5 10 1 (100%; 44/0) 3 0 3 1 7 4 (100%) 01101-64 2 2 5 13 4 I 173% MAC Nei' 10 3 4 5 11 2 ISO%) 1.81hAffirt4 12 II 3 1i 1 27 I 3 10 13 1144 U'immt 4m4 2 0 3 6 To1il 179 1I 130 II6 633 230 202 330 19 133 SI 4% Lint 2030 2001 2032 2003 2034 2006 2006 ZOO? Ma 2303 2010 2010 811) 2011 1470 Grote. Ii:el, Mery 152 141 124 91 90 100 107 1 II. 106 76 57 54 45%) Moo, 4 40P3 20 22 24 20 20 27 37 50 41 59 42 25 140%) Ea/mm(0994 3 s 4 6 II I7 20 21 20 II 14 I22%) MOOtt ESE 7 2 3 5 5 9 3 13 1? 13 12 15%) MO 3 10 2 4 2 5 7 6 5 117%) 1:941441•0* 2 I 2 1 1 5 17 23 14 7 21% APACctot 2 3 7 0 3 4 0 14 9 7 122%) UltiMeti). 15 6 II 7 12 13 22 35 23 IS es%) 1.94/04,1mkt 3 I 3 2 5 3 40%1 DS Yip 215 191 1411 111 138 162 103 215 271 235 200 111? 152 OM OA 200 2001 1002 2000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2006 2002 2010 1010171)2011 TM 0034* ltd, Armco 544 567 519 304 40 464 496 641 693 434 316 IV 191 5% Wear. Etropo 05 10 91 62 7 93 145 171 233 126 III la a I40%) Ea0rnEy994 II i 10 5 1 34 41 50 ta 66 53 41 29 O%3 1.Wdef as; II 4 4 12 II 24 IS 29 23 16 13 119%) Afro) 12 I 6 10 9 7 12 25 23 IS 15 6 RV C,14.1'02 4 4 3 II 12 19 20 26 42 19 32 SS% PAC (Pe/ I6 I IS II 9 25 23 26 29 26 I5 11 12739) Lain krorr.a SI 7 46 24 24 40 SI 29 9) 92 113 75 66 02%) WI:ono mu 6 2 2 2 6 4 20 24 5 7 6 6 TIMM 742 799 781 I05 540 678 111 UM 1214 831 717 451 MI (IS) All .1VLJ 6:00 2001 2002 2303 1031 2005 2006 2007 2006 200 2010 WO YTD 2311 WO Groat 24:0- krona 544 567 519 *A 4(.0 464 436 533 SI? 297 244 146 169 15% WtEito, 4 401. 65 90 93 62 71 93 145 103 204 90 67 EC 42 1304) Easonquepe II 2 10 5 17 34 4! 48 76 61 44 33 27 116%) Made ESE 0 4 4 6 12 18 24 1? 26 23 16 12 125%) lima 12 3 6 10 6 9 7 12 II 21 IS II 5 155%3 0410-64 4 4 3 5 II 12 19 25 26 33 18 30 67% APAC ce0 16 I 16 11 9 9 25 21 23 22 20 12 8 133%3 in n irorr.a SI 7 46 24 24 40 SI 69 69 59 6? 42 56 33% 1.1.1100.91 OM 6 2 2 2 6 4 IS, 12 5 € 5 6 20% TON 101VU 742 759 TO 915 544 626 719 fa 965 601 644 343 364 3%1 SWIM ASCEND and UBS estimates UBS 4 EFTA01112880 UBS Business Jet Update 12 January 2012 We believe the recovery in North America is being driven by replacement demand postponed during the downturn. After holding relatively steady during most of the last decade, the average age of the fleet has moved higher over the last few years. Most of the older aircraft are small and midsize aircraft in North America. Chart 6: Average Fleet Age by Cabin Class (Years) t 20 - Total Ex VLJs z 15 - LL t 10 O 0 O LU • ▪ 00 00 ▪ 0, 0) 0, ▪O, O, 00 0, 01 01 O O Souse: UBS eslimates Chart 7: Average Fleet Age by Cabin Class (Years) Midsize Small ex -VU z s ca 16 - a 13 - Large 10 MEAMIE i6 8 8 8 8 8 8 Source: UBS estimates Chart 8: 11-20 Year Old Business Jet Installed Base by Region Africa AsiatPaciftc 2% 4% Europe 11% Latn America & Caribbean I 11% Middle Easl North America 1% 71% Source: JETNET and UBS esthetes UBS 5 EFTA01112881 UBS Business Jet Wait 12 January 2012 Cessna, with 60-70% of its deliveries and installed base in North America. is the levered to a recovery in North America bizjets. Chart 9: Bombardier Deliveries by Region Chart 10: Cessna Deliveries by Region L America L America 10% Asia 10% 6% Asia N America • Emerging 10% 39% EMEA 745 Emerging 412) W Europe EMEA 9% a N America 18% 68% W Europe 23% Source: JETNET and UBS estimates Source: JETNET and UBS estimates Chart 11: Dassault Deliveries by Region Chart 12: Gulfstream Deliveries by Region L America L America 16% 14% Source: JETNET and UBS estimates Source: JETNET and UBS estimates UBS 6 EFTA01112882 UBS Business Jet Update 12 January 2012 ■ Statement of Risk The business jet market is cyclical in nature, largely driven by the general economic environment. Business jet manufacturers' earnings and cash flow are dependent on end-user demand, availability of customer financing, program execution and inventory management. A weak market for business jets could negatively affect General Dynamics, Textron, Bombardier, Embraer, Rockwell Collins, Honeywell, B/E Aerospace, Rolls-Royce and United Technologies. ■ Analyst Certification Each research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to each security or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about those securities or issuers and were prepared in an independent manner, including with respect to UBS, and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research analyst in the research report. UBS 7 EFTA01112883 UBS Business Jet Update 12 January 2012 Required Disclosures This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC, an affiliate of UBS AG. 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