EFTA00731502.pdf

<lb UNITED NATIONS o, UNIVERSITY fziti UNU-INTECH Institute S New Technologies Discussion Paper Series #2005-3 Science and Technology Development Indicators in the Arab Region: A Comparative Study of Gulf and Mediterranean Arab Countries Samia Satti 0. M. Nour August 2005 UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY, Institute for New Technologies, Keizer Karelplein 19, 6211 TC Maastricht, The Netherlands Tel: (31) (43) 350 6300, Fax: (31) (43)350 6399, e-mail: postmaster@intech.unu.edu, URL: http://www.intech.unu.edu EFTA00731502 EFTA00731503  SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS IN THE ARAB REGION: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF GULF AND MEDITERRANEAN ARAB COUNTRIES Samia Satti 0. M. Nour* Abstract This paper employs both descriptive and comparative approaches to discuss science and technology (S&T) development in Arab countries in the Gulf and Mediterranean regions. Throughout the paper we use the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development's definition of S&T indicators (OECD, 1997). From this research we find that neither the Gulf nor the Mediterranean countries investigated possess sufficient human or financial resources to promote S&T performance. We show that the low level of resources devoted to S&T development together with inadequate economic structures mean that the Gulf and Mediterranean Arab countries lag behind the world's advanced and leading developing countries in terms of S&T input and output indicators. In both regions, most of the research, development and S&T activities occur within public and academic sectors, with only a very small contribution from the private sector. When comparing S&T indicators between the two Arab regions we find that despite the high standard of economic development in the Gulf countries, as measured by gross domestic product per capita and the human development index, it is the Mediterranean countries that perform better in most of the S&T input and output indicators. Furthermore, we show that there is very limited scientific cooperation within and between the Gulf and Mediterranean countries as well as between them and other Arab countries. In contrast, three Arab countries from the Mediterranean region — Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia — show active scientific cooperation with the international community, especially the OECD and France in particular. This implies that social proximity (sharing similar language, culture, etc.) can hardly help regional scientific cooperation within the Arab world; it is geographical proximity to Europe that motivates these countries' international scientific cooperation. JEL Classification: O0 * PhD candidate Maastricht University. Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT) and The United Nations University (UNU). Institute for New Technologies (INTECH) - E-mail: nour@intech.unu.edu. This papa is a revised version of the paper originally prepared for the ERE' 10* Annual Conference: Marrakesh — Morocco. 16th to Igh of December 2003. The author acknowledges comments by two unknown referees. The usual disclaimer applies. EFTA00731504 EFTA00731505  UNU-INTECH Discussion Papers ISSN 1564-8370 Copyright 2005 UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY Institute for New Technologies, UNU-INTECH UNU-INTECH discussion papers intend to disseminate preliminary results of the research carried out at the institute to attract comments EFTA00731506 EFTA00731507 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION 9 2. THE DEFINITION AND SIGNIFICANCE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY INDICATORS 11 3. GENERAL SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF GULF AND MEDITERRANEAN COUNTRIES 15 4. S&T INDICATORS IN THE GULF AND MEDITERRANEAN COUNTRIES 17 4.1. HUMAN AND FINANCIAL INPUT INDICATORS 17 4.2. SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY OUTPUT AND IMPACT 21 5. CONCLUSIONS 31 REFERENCES 33 THE UNU•INTECH DISCUSSION PAPER SERIES 37 EFTA00731508 EFTA00731509 1. INTRODUCTION In recent years, a new economic system has evolved that is characterized by both globalization and the rise of information and communication technologies. This has driven the need for development in science and technology (S&T), which has become more than simply an element of economic growth and industrial competitiveness, but is now also essential for improving social development, the quality of life and the global environment. For instance, the high level of economic and social development in today's industrialized countries is largely the result of past intensive investment in S&T; similarly, newly industrialized countries are catching up because of their active development of S&T. "Access to scientific and technological knowledge and the ability to exploit it are becoming increasingly strategic and decisive for the economic performance of countries and regions in the competitive globalized economy. The 50 leading MT countries have enjoyed longterm economic growth much higher than the other 130 countries of the rest of the world. Between 1986 and 1994 the average growth rate of this heterogeneous group of countries was around three times greater than that of the rest of the world. The average economic wealth per capita of these 50 countries has grown by 1.1% per year. On the other hand, the per capita income of the group of 130 countries — which perform less well in education, science and technology — has fallen over the same period by 1.5% per year. These trends prefigure a new division of the global economy, based on access to knowledge and the ability to exploit it". (OECD 1997, ix) Hence, within this context, the aim of this paper is to assess S&T development indicators within the Arab region and, in particular, to compare the S&T development of those in the Mediterranean with those in the Gulf, and to compare them to countries in the rest of the world.' Given the recent progress of economic globalization coupled with the emergence of new nations active in S&T in different parts of the world, this paper extends the comparison to include these new countries as well as those in Europe, the United States and Japan, and then draws some policy implications and recommendations for ways to enhance S&T performance in the Arab region. The Mediterranean region includes eight Arab countries or territories: Algeria, Egypt, Lebanon• Libya, Morocco, Palestine. Syria and Tunisia. while the Gulf includes six Arab countries: Bahrain. Kuwait, Oman. Qatar. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). 9 EFTA00731510 This study differs in several ways from the European Second Report on S&T Indicators (OECD 1997)2, which provides an excellent and in-depth analysis of S&T performance in the Mediterranean countries. First, we distinguish between the Arab Mediterranean countries and the non-Arab Mediterranean countries. Secondly, we extend our analysis to compare Arab countries in the Mediterranean with those of the Gulf. Thirdly, we attempt to use more up-to- date data wherever possible. This is so we can help establish the information base necessary to stimulate S&T development and support new policies that aim to enhance S&T performance in the Arab region. This kind of study highlights recent efforts to create an active Arabian S&T base but also emphasizes the need to improve the quality of resources devoted to S&T development, which will ultimately contribute to and accelerate development in the region. Furthermore, it also helps governments to obtain the most positive impact possible from technological progress in terms of growth, employment and the well-being of all Arab citizens. The paper is organized in the following way: section 2 discusses the literature available, focusing on the definition and significance of S&T indicators. Section 3 shows the general socio-economic characteristics of the two groups of Arab countries. Section 4 discusses S&T development indicators in the Arab countries, including a comparison of the indicators for Mediterranean and Gulf countries, and then compares the Arabian region with the rest of the world. Finally section 5 draws conclusions and proposes policies to enhance S&T performance in the Arab region, based on the experiences of other countries. 2 In our view the only shortcoming of the excellent and comprehensive analysis offered by the European Second Report on S&T Indicators (OECD 1997) is the lack of information on Palestine and Libya. which constrained our attempts to fill this gap. 10 EFTA00731511 2. THE DEFINITION AND SIGNIFICANCE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY INDICATORS The S&T system is often defined as consisting of all the institutions and organizations essential to the education of scientific people, for example, research and development (MI) institutions, professional societies and professional organizations linking individual scientists to each other and to their socio-economic environment. The theoretical and empirical literature identifies the important role that S&T plays in promoting economic growth and development in both developed and developing countries! More recent literature addresses the contribution to S&T performance of the 'national systems of innovation'; a widely used modern term that reflects the link between technical and institutional innovative development, including S&T (e.g. Lundvall 1992; Nelson 1993). Lundvall says this broad definition includes "all parts and aspects of the economic structure and the institutional set-up affecting learning as well as starching and exploring — the production system, the marketing system and the system of finance present themselves as subsystems in which learning takes place" (Lundvall 1992, 12-13). In addition, Freeman and Soete argue: "The many national interactions (whether public or private) between various institutions dealing with science and technology as well as with higher education, innovation and technology diffusion in the much broader sense, have become known as 'national systems of innovation'. A clear understanding of such national systemic interactions provides an essential bridge when moving from the micro• to the macroeconomics of innovation. It is also essential for comprehending fully the growth dynamics of science and technology and the particularly striking way in which such growth dynamics appear to differ across countries", (Freeman and Soete 1997, 291). All the definitions of the systems of innovation share the view that S&T institutions play a vital role in determining or influencing innovation and development. The literature on S&T development often distinguishes between input (resources) and output (performance) indicators. For instance, the European Second Report on S&T Indicators (OECD 1997) discusses numerous traditional input and output indicators for S&T development. The input indicators are generally divided into financial and human resources. First financial resource or input indicator includes'I= expenditure — the most widely accepted indicator for For detailed theoretical and empirical literature and assessment studies, see e.g. Freeman and Soete (1997), Dasgupta and David (1994), Foray (1999), Mytelka (2001) and Cooper (1991, 1994). For earlier analyses of S&T in the Arab region. see e.g. Qasem (1998a. b). Zahlan (199%. b). Fergany (1999). ESCWA (1999a. b). and ESCWA—UNESCO (199%. b). II EFTA00731512 evaluating and comparing S&T efforts in different countries and regions. In the absence of an average measurement to determine MI within the economic structure and the needs of each country, political decision-makers use indicators such as the intensity of (measured as a percentage of GDP or per capita)... In addition to financial resources, human resources arc central to research and technological innovation activities". There are also general demographic and human capital indicators, "such as the number of science and technology graduates and the number of scientists and engineers employed in M... [There are] four major points relating to human capital: demographic trends, the development of public spending on education, the performance of education systems and researchers and engineers active in M. Furthermore, "Human resources in science and technology (HRST) are one of the key resources for economic growth, competitiveness and more general social, economic and environmental improvement", (OECD 1997, 5, 58, 59). Output indicators, on the other hand, "can be classified according to three parameters: economic, technological and scientific. As to economic outputs, many economists view increases in productivity as a major result of technological investment... The percentage of high-tech exports in total export figures emerges as a potentially useful means of measurement... Clearly not all results arc measurable in economic terms. Scientists and engineers often cite the 'learning experience' as one major benefit of engaging in activities. To assess the accumulated knowledge of a given country, its stock of technical knowledge must be quantified. Without doubt, patents and patents applications are the most commonly applied indicator in this respect and, irrespective of the shortcomings implicit in this approach, they continue to represent a very useful tool". Finally there are direct research outputs or publications, "focusing on the impact of the publication output of a given country or zone and comparing it to the number of publications produced over a certain period of time" (OECD 1997, 79). We use these definitions and the summary in Box 1 to evaluate S&T performance in section 4. 12 EFTA00731513 Box I. Definition of S&T input and output indicators Types S&T IndicatorsNariables S&T Input: I. Financial resources: Financial percentage of expenditure to GDP or expenditure per capita. area of and Human performance, and origin of funding Resources change in public spending on education in relation to GDP 2. Human resources: HRST — the human capital engaged in science and including the number of scientists and engineers employed in total population size and proportion of young people, which represent the human resources potential of each country educational attainment of the labour force and graduation rates, which show the rate at which newly educated graduates are available at the country level to enter the labour force, particularly the scientific and technological qualifications and doctorate levels. including staff numbers. particularly in S&T fields S&T I. Economic indicators: growth in productivity/economic outputs as a major result of technological investment Output: percentage of high-technology exports in total exports Economic. 2. Technological indicators Technologic number of patents and patent applications al and 3. Scientific performance Scientific direct research output Performance number of publications produced over a certain period of time I3 EFTA00731514 EFTA00731515 3. GENERAL SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF GULF AND MEDITERRANEAN COUNTRIES S&T performance is often closely related not only to the resources directly devoted to its development but also to the whole economic structure that supports it. Therefore, before assessing S&T performance in the Gulf and Mediterranean Arab countries it is useful to explain the general socio-economic characteristics of the two groups of countries. Table 1 shows the demographic structure and the major socio-economic characteristics for this region. Table 1. General socio-economic characteristics of the Arab countries' Country Population° GDP per Human Life Literacy Combined i millions) capita Develo Expectancyb Rateb enrolment (PPPd US pment (years) (%) ratio' (%) 5) Index° i (%) Arab Gulf countries High income United Arab Emirates 2.9 20.530 0.816 74.4 76.7 67 Qatar 0.6 19,844 0.826 71.8 81.7 81 Kuwait 2.4 18,700 0.820 76.3 82.4 54 Bahrain 0.7 16.060 0.839 73.7 87.9 81 Upper middle income Oman 2.7 12,040 0.755 72.2 73.0 58 Saudi Arabia 22.8 13,330 0.769 71.9 77.1 58 Average Gulf countries 5.4 16.751 0.804 73.4 79.8 67 Arab Mediterranean Upper middle income Lebanon 3.5 4,170 0.752 73.3 86.5 76 Libya 5.3 7,570 0.773 70.5 80.0 92 Lower middle income Tunisia 9.6 6 390 0.740 72.5 72.1 76 Algeria 30.7 6,090 0.704 69.2 67.8 71 Egypt 69.1 3,520 0.648 68.3 56.1 76 Syria 17.0 3,280 0.685 71.5 75.3 59 Morocco 29.6 3,600 0.606 68.1 49.8 51 Palestine 3.3 Na 0.731 72.1 89.2 77 Average Arab 21.0 4,946 0.705 70.7 72.1 72 Mediterranean Average Arab states 289.9 5,038 0.662 66.0 60.8 60 Source: UNDP (2003). Notes: a 2001, 2000. c 1999, PPP — purchasing power parity. 4 The World Bank and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Human Development Report classify world countries differently according to income level. We use the World Bank classification of economies that puts all the Arab Mediterranean countries in the lower middle-income category with the exception of Lebanon and Libya. which are classified in the upper middle-income group. 15 EFTA00731516 Table I shows the considerable diversity between Gulf and Mediterranean Arab countries in terms of population, standard of economic development as measured by GDP per capita and human development index. Gulf countries generally have lower population numbers and higher standards of economic development. The World Bank classification of economics indicates that four of the Gulf countries are in the high-income group and the other two are among the upper middle-income economics. Moreover, the UNDP human development index (HDI) shows that the GDP per capita is higher for these countries than for both the Mediterranean countries and the world average, while life expectancy and literacy rates are classified as high in four of the Gulf countries; the other two are among the medium world countries. In contrast, the Mediterranean Arab countries have both large geographical and population sizes coupled with low standards of economic development and growth indicators as measured by GDP per capita. The World Bank classification of economies puts all but two of the Arab Mediterranean countries among the lower medium-income group; Libya and Lebanon arc classified in the upper medium-income economies. Moreover, the UNDP HDI shows that the average GDP per capita for each of the Mediterranean countries falls within the world medium- income bracket and is, on average, lower than for those of the Gulf countries. This also holds for the other HDI components: average life expectancy, literacy rate and combined enrolment ratios. Among the Arab Mediterranean countries, Lebanon, Libya and Tunisia show better performance in terms of GDP per capita and HDI compared to the others in the region, while the combined enrolment ratio is highest in Libya, followed by Palestine. For the Gulf countries, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE show better performances in terms of the majority of indicators than either Saudi Arabia or Oman. According to the UNDP indicators, poverty is widespread across most of the Mediterranean Arab countries especially in Egypt and Algeria, while none of the Gulf countries reportedly shares the same problem. Moreover, according to estimates from the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook (IMF 2002), average unemployment rates across the Mediterranean countries exceed those of the Gulf countries. However, trends in unemployment rates show either a slowing increase or an actual decline across the Mediterranean Arab countries compared to the rapid increase seen across the Gulf countries. The next section of this paper examines whether this economic background affects S&T performance in the Gulf and Mediterranean countries. 16 EFTA00731517 4. S&T INDICATORS IN THE GULF AND MEDITERRANEAN COUNTRIES Based on the definition of S&T indicators provided in section 2, this section presents the input indicators (financial and human resources) and output indicators (scientific and technological performance) required to measure S&T performance. 4.1. Human and Financial Input Indicators In terms of both financial and human S&T input/resource indicators there are some differences between the Arab Gulf and Mediterranean countries as well as between them and other countries around the world. Table 2 shows that on the whole both financial and human S&T input indicators in these regions lag behind those of the advanced and leading developing countries. 4.1.1. Financial Input Indicators In particular, table 2 shows that the financial resources devoted to S&T, as measured by the percentage share of GDP spent on M, are poor in the Arab countries compared to both advanced and leading developing countries like Singapore and Korea. For instance, in the period 1996-2000, the Arab Mediterranean and Gulf countries devoted an average of only 0.3% of their GDP to whereas Sweden, one of the leading advanced industrial countries, spent 3.8% of GDP on M. However, spending on education, as measured by percentage of both GDP and total government expenditure, was found to be similar for the Arab countries and the advanced countries. Comparing S&T indicators between the two Arab regions shows that the Mediterranean countries on average perform better than the Gulf countries in terms of expenditure on both education and as percentage of GDP. 17 EFTA00731518 Table 2. S&T resource indicators of the Gulf, Mediterranean and world countries Country Public Public Number of Number High expenditure on expenditure on expenditur scientists and of patents technology education as % education as % e as % of engineers in a. b exports as % of GDP' of government GDP ' (per million of expenditure ° population) ° manufactured exports' 1990 1998- 1990 1998- 1996- 1996-2000 1990- 1990 2001 2000 2000 2000 1999 Gulf countries Bahrain 4.2 3.0 14.6 11.4 Na Na 2 0 0 Kuwait 4.8 Na 3.4 Na 0.2 212 27 4 1 Oman 3.1 3.9 I1.1 Na Na 8 3 II Qatar 3.5 3.6 Na Na Na 591 0 0 0 Saudi 6.5 9.5 17.8 Na Na Na 103 0 Na Arabia UAE 1.9 1.9 14.6 Na Na Na 15 0 Na Average 4.0 4.4 12.3 11.4 0.2 270 25 2.5 1 Gulf Mediterrane an countries Algeria 5.3 Na 21.1 Na Na Na Na 0 4 Egypt 3.7 Na Na Na 0.2 493 38 0 1 Lebanon Na 3.1 Na ILI Na Na Na Na 3 Morocco 5.3 5.5 26.1 26.1 Na Na Na 0 II Syria 4.1 4.1 17.3 11.1 0.2 29 3 0 I Tunisia 6.0 6.8 13.5 17.4 0.5 336 Na 2 3 Average 4.9 4.9 19.5 16.4 0.3 286 20.5 0.4 3.8 Mediterrane an Norway 7.1 6.8 14.6 16.2 1.7 4.112 97 8 12 Sweden 7.4 7.8 13.8 13.4 3.8 4.511 285 13 18 UK 4.9 4.5 Na 11.4 1.8 2.666 76 23 31 Korea. Rep. 3.5 3.8 22.4 17.4 931 18 29 7 2.319 of Singapore Na 3.7 Na 23.6 1.1 4.140 12 39 60 China 2.3 2.1 12.8 Na 0.1 545 793 0 20 Sources: UNDP (2003), United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) website: http://www.uspro.gov. Patent data for Korea, Norway, Singapore, Sweden and the UK obtained from UNDP (2003) and refers to patents granted in 1999 to residents per million people. For China and all Arab countries, patent data was obtained from USPTO during 1991-1999 and refers to the number of registered US patents where the inventor of the patent is resident in the selected countries. 5 Investigation of the distribution of in Gulf and Mediterranean Arab countries indicates that the public sector is responsible for the majority of activities, accounting for 49.4% and 80.4% of all MI institutions respectively (figure I). Next to public sector, universities 5 One limitation of the comparison in our analysis is that we use data and information from two different sources: the scarcity of data and information covering all countries limited our attempt to use a unified source. For instance there was no data covering Libya or Palestine. I8 EFTA00731519 contribute 43.5% and 13.4% of = institutions in Gulf and Mediterranean countries respectively; the private sector makes only a minor contribution, accounting for 7.0% and 6.2% of = institutions respectively. The Mediterranean countries appear to be more dependent on the public sector than the Gulf countries, reflecting a lack of incentives for private sector institutions to invest in = in the Mediterranean compared to the Gulf. This compares poorly to most of the industrialized countries, where more than half of = expenditure is financed by industry (OECD 1997). Figure 1. Percentage distribution of in the Gulf and Mediterranean Arab countries Source: Adapted from ESCWA-UNESCO (1998b). Notes: Refers to 1991 FTE — equivalent. 4.1.2. Human Resources Input Indicators Table 2 shows that there is a low number of scientists and engineers in = in the Gulf and Mediterranean countries compared to both advanced and leading developing countries. Moreover, the OECD (1997) Second European Report on S&T Indicators shows that there is proportionally 10 times fewer = personnel in the Mediterranean countries than in the European Union. When comparing the two Arab regions, it is the Mediterranean countries that show a marginally better performance than the Gulf countries in terms of the number of scientists and engineers in 19 EFTA00731520 In terms of the human resources devoted to M, defined by the number of full-time equivalent (FTE)6 researchers, and their distribution within IM organizations (figure I), we find that the majority of FTE researchers are employed by public and university sectors. The percentage share of FTE researchers in the public sector is estimated to be 49.2% and 74.9% in the Gulf and Mediterranean Arab countries respectively. Next to the public sector, it is the university sector that has the largest percentage share of FTE researchers: at 49.3% and 23.6% respectively; the private sector accounts for only 1.4% and 2.6% of total FTE researchers in the regions. As with the distribution of institutions, it is the Mediterranean countries that appear to be more dependent on the public sector for FTE researchers than the Gulf countries. Again, it is the lack of incentives for private sector institutions to hire FTE researchers that leads to this disparity. In addition, them arc fewer human resources in S&T in both the Gulf and Mediterranean Arab countries compared to more developed countries, shown in figures 2 and 3. The Arab countries score poorly compared to Korea and Singapore for the Harbison Myers Index', technical enrolment index, engineering enrolment index, gross enrolment ratio at tertiary education and the share of tertiary students in science, mathematics and engineering" The only exception (not shown in figure 3) is the share of tertiary students in science, mathematics and engineering in Algeria, which is higher compared to both advanced and developing countries (UNDP 2004). Figure 2. Skill indicators in Korea, Singapore and the Arab countries 0 20 so 60 80 100 120 140 O Engineering enrolment Korea. Republic of index Singapore ■Technical Average Gulf countries enrolment index Average Mediterranean • Harbison Arab states Myers Index Source: Adaptedfrom Lai (1999). 6 The concept of full-time equivalent researcher is adopted by UNESCO statistics on personnel. According to Lall (1999): "Harbison Myers Index is the sum of secondary enrolment and tertiary enrolment times five, both as a percentage of age group. Technical enrolment index is tertiary total enrolment (times 1000) plus tertiary enrolment in technical subjects (times 5000). both as a percentage of population. Engineering skills index is the same as the previous index, with tertiary enrolments in engineering instead of enrolment in technical subjects- (tall, 1999: p.52). See also Muysken and Nour (2005) and UNDP—AHDR (2003). 20 EFTA00731521 Figure 3. Percentage enrolment at tertiary education 60 70 lahlrOSS enrolment ratio at tertiary 60 education 4%) 50 40 30 ■Share tertiary students in science. 20 math and 10 engineering 4%) 0 Source: Adaptedfrom UNDP (2002). When comparing average skill indicators for the Arab Gulf countries with those of the Mediterranean, figures 2 and 3 indicate that, on average, the Mediterranean countries perform better. Additional information from La11 (1999) and UNDP (2004) indicate that all these skill indices are especially high in Lebanon and Kuwait, while the gross enrolment ratio at tertiary education is highest in Egypt and Lebanon followed by Qatar and Bahrain. The share of tertiary students in science, mathematics and engineering is highest in Algeria, followed by Syria, Oman, Morocco, the UAE and Tunisia. With the aforementioned exception of Algeria, enrolment in science, mathematics and engineering is lower than enrolment for all other subjects in both Mediterranean and Gulf countries. In addition, school-leaving age is highest in Tunisia, Qatar, Bahrain and Lebanon. 4.2. Science and Technology Output and Impact As we explained briefly in section 2, the literature distinguishes between S&T outputs, which can be measured in terms of publications and patents, and S&T impact, which can be measured in terms of economic growth. This section discusses S&T output as measured by number of patent filings and scientific publications (in the international refereed literature) but discusses S&T impact as measured only by the share of high-technology manufacturing exports. Owing to limitations concerning data availability it is not possible to address the impact of technological development on economic/productivity growth in much detail. We integrate the findings in section 3, concerning the general economic characteristics of the Arab economies, with those of section 4.1, regarding S&T input indicators. Using a systematic approach we assess S&T performance in terms of inputs and the economic system as a whole. Our analysis aims to explain the connection between the S&T system, S&T profile and the 21 EFTA00731522 economic or productive structure of these countries. For example, table 2 shows that for both patent numbers and the percentage of high-technology exports Arab Gulf and Mediterranean countries are substantially behind the advanced and leading developing countries. In our view, which is backed up by general S&T literature, the weakness of the S&T base in the Arab regions should be interpreted not only in terms of a lack of appropriate inputs but also in relation to a poor economic system as a whole. Measuring the strength of the economic and welfare systems using income per capita implies that the Gulf countries do very well. However, they also exhibit low S&T activity, which seems at odds with the idea that strong S&T is necessary for economic growth and development. Of course, the Gulf is hugely dependent on oil, giving the impression that there are other ways to become rich than investing in S&T. The big question is whether the Gulf countries will stay rich once their oil reserves expire; despite their big wealth from oil they still lack well-defined, targeted plans and policies and proper incentives to promote S&T performance. For while the Gulf countries perform better than the Mediterranean countries in economic terms they lag behind in measurements of S&T performance. Therefore, the big wealth from oil, far from contributing to the improvement of S&T performance in the Gulf may actually hinder it as it masks the need to develop incentives and effective policies to enhance S&T development. The Mediterranean countries' story is simpler poor economic structure in combination with inadequate resources devoted to S&T development leads to poor S&T performance compared to advanced and developing world countries. 4.2.1. Scientific Publications9 Figure 4 shows that the number of scientific publications for both Gulf and Mediterranean countries grew between the periods 1970-1975 and 1990-1995. On average, Mediterranean countries performed better than Gulf countries for number of scientific publications, which could be a consequence of their superiority to the Gulf countries in terms of most of the S&T indicators: total expenditure on both education and = number of = employees; and number of- scientists and engineers. Egypt and Saudi Arabia show the largest overall numb 9 The OECD (1997) report indicates that prizes awarded to individual scientists is an extreme indicator of S&T performance and is one way of measuringIM output. Of all scientific prizes the Nobel prizes for science, which have been awarded to scientists in the fields of chemistry, physics and medicine/physiology since 1901, are probably the most prestigious. The Arab Gulf and Mediterranean countries have only received one Nobel Prize between them: in 1999 an Egyptian scientist received the Nobel Prize for chemistry. 22 EFTA00731523 Figure 4. Number of S&T publications in the Gulf and Mediterranean countries Number of Publications (1970-1995) 14000 12000 10000 8000 • 1970-1975 • 1990-1995 6000 4000 .1.._•111.] 2000 0 st A . ce I yt ,st, e , tt- oc, op op 4), ob .se op 4 . O 46‘.- I' 41* tt.I I cir's Source: Adaptedfrom Zahlan (199%). Table 3 indicates that, of the Arab Mediterranean countries, Egypt has the best percentage share of total world scientific publications. However, the average share of all Arab Mediterranean countries remains very low compared to those of the United States, European top 15 and non- Arab Mediterranean countries. Moreover, the percentage share of both total papers published and number of citations in publications in the region is much lower for any of the Arab Mediterranean countries than the non-Arab Mediterranean countries (Turkey and Israel specifically). Again, Egypt leads the Arab Mediterranean countries in this indicator, followed by the group of Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia and then the group of Albania, Cyprus, Lebanon, Malta and Syria. Furthermore, in the period 1985-1995, it is Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia that display the most coordination, cooperation and networking with the European top 15 countries in terms of internationally co-authored papers. 23 EFTA00731524  Table 3. Technology output indicators by share of the world's scientific publication output, published papers citations and internationally co-authored papers Countries Share in world's Share of published paper and Mediterranean countries' publication output in citation in the Mediterranean share of internationally all scientific fields countries (%) co-authored papers with combined (%) EUR 15 (% 1985- 1990- 1985.1989 1990.1995 198 198 199 1995 1989 1995 5 9 0 Paper Citatio Paper Citatio s n s n Egypt 0.27 0.29 16.5 16.5 5.7 15.6 8.0 7.5 9.7 11.2 Algeria/ Morocco/ 0.08 0.13 4.6 4.6 2.4 6.7 40. 56. 54. Tunisia 4 4 7 58.7 Lebanon/ Syria/ 0.03 0.04 1.9 1.9 0.7 2.0 Malta/ Albania/ 23. 30. 21. Cyprus 7 7 1 48.5 Average Arab 24. 31. 28. Mediterranean i 0.13 0.15 7.7 7.7 2.9 8.1 0 5 5 39.5 Average Non- Arab 12. Mediterranean 2 0.65 0.72 38.6 38.6 45.6 37.9 9.3 4 9.4 12.3 EUR 15 30.42 33.92 Na Na Na Na Na Na Na Na USA 36.33 35.82 Na Na Na Na Na Na Na Na Source: Adaptedfrom RASC1Data: Science Citation Index, OECD (1997). Pp. 455, 46O. Notes: 'Refers to average for each group: Egypt; Algeria/Morocco/Tunisia; and Albania/C)prus/Lebanon/Malta/Syria. =Refers to averagefor Turkey and Israel. Despite, the increasing importance of international cooperation, them is very limited cooperation among scientists in both Arab Gulf and Mediterranean countries as indicated by the number of joint publications and co-authorships (table 4). In particular, it is scientists from the Gulf countries who lag behind, accounting for less than 2% of worldwide cooperation. Zahlan (I999a) finds that in 1990, co-authorship within the Gulf countries was only 1.4% of all co— authored papers; this increased to 3% in 1995. Such limited regional cooperation is also true for the Mediterranean countries, for instance in 1995 scientists in the Maghreb countries of Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia published 1,206 publications. Of these, 769 were co-authored with scientists from other countries yet only I1 included scientists from two Maghreb countries. Furthermore, only one out of the II did not involve an OECD partner. 24 EFTA00731525 Table t Scientific cooperation: total number of publications and joint publications in the Gulf and Maghreb countries Country Total number Number of Co-authored Co-authored Main Arab of published joint papers with GCCI with Arab partners papers partners partners Egypt Gulf countries 1990 1995 1990 1995 1990 1995 1990 1995 1990 1995 Bahrain 59 106 17 29 3 2 2 1 - 1 Kuwait 487 290 132 117 0 14 12 12 10 II Oman 48 84 25 37 0 0 1 0 1 - Qatar 48 59 19 36 2 6 24 6 23 Saudi Arabia 1,031 1,240 242 294 6 9 59 71 48 57 UAE 49 137 33 55 2 10 13 19 10 14 Total Gulf 1.722 2.716 468 568 13 35 93 127 75 106 Total number Number of Co-authored Co-authored Main partners of published joint papers with OECD with Arab France papers partners partners Maghreb 1990 1995 1990 1995 1990 1995 1990 1995 1990 1995 countries Algeria 172 328 137 227 120 187 4 3 90 151 Morocco 240 536 153 395 132 314 0 2 90 241 Tunisia 268 342 77 147 69 122 0 3 55 87 Total Maghreb 680 1206 367 769 321 623 4 8 235 479 Libya 2 58 58 31 35 II 16 3 7 I1 9 Total 738 1264 398 804 332 639 7 15 246 488 Mediterranean Source: Adaptedfrom Zahlan (1999a). Notes: t GCC - Cur Cooperation Council including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. 2 The main partnersfor Libya are India (1990) and UK (1995). As shown in table 4 there is an absence of scientific cooperation and co-authorship among scientists from the Gulf and Mediterranean countries as well as between them and other Arab countries. Where Gulf countries do cooperate with Arab scientists, it tends to be limited to only a small number of countries. According to Zahlan (1999a) this is because universities in Gulf countries employ professors mainly from other Arab countries. Similarly, in the Mediterranean Arab region, cooperation between Maghreb countries and other Arab scientists accounts only for 3.0% and 3.5% of all co-authored published papers in 1990 and 1995 respectively (Zahlan, I999a). Arab count