EFTA01437025.pdf

Subject: RE: Fwd: DB: Forei n demand for US credit weakening [I] From: Martin Zeman Date: Fri, 02 Mar 2018 08:50:29 -0500 To: Torsten Slok Xavier Avila Stewart Oldfield Joshua Shoshan Davide-A Sferrazza Cc: Jennifer Francis Classification: For internal use only Torsten, Thanks for accepting today's call with Paul on such short notice. Paul Barrett is Stewart Oldfield's client and manages money for a few families. We have been discussing the below charts of yours and Paul discussed with us buying payer spreads on CDX IG. I guess he'd like to have a bit more in depth call with you around the flows as Europe and Japan pull back from QE and what that means to assets in the US. Thanks again and see you at 11 on the call. Martin fcid:image006.png@OlD3AFC7.04DD48C01{cid:image003.png@OlD38203.57978470} From: Torsten Slok Sent: Thursday, March 01, 2018 8:03 PM To: Martin Zeman ; Xavier Avila < >• Stewart Oldfield Cc: Jennifer Francis Subject: RE: Fwd: DB: Foreign demand for US credit weakening EFTA01437025 Yes, tmrw @ 11.00am EST? From: Martin Zeman ‹ > Date: Thursday, Mar 01, 2018, 18:06 To: Torsten Slok , Xavier Avila ‹ > Stewart Oldfield Subject: FW: Fwd: DB: Foreign demand for US credit weakening Torsten, Would you have time for a call tomorrow with Paul Barrett who manages money for a few families and trades with us? Thank you, Martin From: Paul Barrett ‹ > EFTA01437026 Date: Thursday, Mar 01, 2018, 17:46 To: Martin Zeman ‹ > Subject: Fwd: DB: Foreign demand for US credit weakening Can we set up a quick call with Torsten tomorrow? Paul Barrett Alpha Group Capital LLC 142 W 57th Street, 11th Floor, New York, NY 10019 Begin forwarded message: From: Torsten Slok ‹ > Date: March 1, 2018 at 9:42:09 AM EST To: undisclosed-recipients:; Subject: DB: Foreign demand for US credit weakening When the ECB introduced negative interest rates in 2014 many European and Asian investors started buying US rates and also the next-door neighbor to US rates namely US IG. With higher US Treasury yields, rising hedging costs, a falling dollar, and signs that the ECB will end QE in September foreign demand for US credit is slowing, see chart below. Expect this to continue going forward. Happy to discuss further, let your DB sales contact know. {cid:image002.png@OlD3B203.57978470} EFTA01437027 Let us know if you would like to add a colleague to this distribution list. Torsten Slok, Ph.D. Chief International Economist Managing Director Deutsche Bank Securities 60 Wall Street New York, New York 10005 Tel: This communication may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communication in error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this communication. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this communication is strictly forbidden. Please refer to https://db.com/disclosures for additional EU corporate and regulatory disclosures. Deutsche Bank does not render legal or tax advice, and the information contained in this communication should not be regarded as such. EFTA01437028