EFTA02154470.pdf

From: Sent: Thur 11/15/2012 11:07:09 AM Subject: Early Tour 11.15.12 Good Morning ... European Markets off 15-100 bps (Spain +0.42%) ... ASX -0.89%, NKY +1.90%, KOSPI -1.23%, SHCOMP -1.22%, HSI -1.55% EUR 1.2763 (+0.22%) JPY 81.21 (-1.18%) EUR/JPY 103.63 (+1.38%) Spain 10yr 5.92% Italy 10yr 4.93% US 10yr 1.615% Futures: Dow +27, Nasdaq +8, S&P +4 DXY $81.12 (+7c) Crude $86.24 (-6c) Gold $1724.00 (- $6.10) Copper +0.49% Another weak handoff out of the US had Asian markets lower today. The final names in China's leadership transition were announced in Beijing: Xi Jinping will become the next President (also named Chairman of the Central Military Committee which was somewhat of a surprise as this role has historically been held for a time by the out-going President) and Li Kequiang will become the new Premier. The PSC has been reduced to a total of 7 members from 9 as expected and those chosen are seen as a more conservative group. There was little reaction in the market following the announcement but the SHCOMP broke lower in the afternoon to close -1.2%. The big 4 banks led declines in both China and HK after the CBRC loans report showed bad loans increasing for a 4th straight quarter. Tencent (-7.0%) also weighed on the HSI after results missed estimates yesterday. Japan was the noticeable outperformer - with elections tentatively set for Dec 16 and the LDP widely expected to win, LDP President Abe is calling for "unlimited easing" to achieve a 2-3% inflation target. The yen spiked to an intra-day high of 80.95, which is the weakest level since Apr vs USD. Eurozone GDP figures out this morning with Germany/France/Italy all ahead of expectations, Spain inline, and Netherlands noticeably weaker (details below). And UK retail sales fall more than expected in October. Spain mulls IMF credit line instead of official EU bailout according to a report in local paper El Confidential but Spanish officials are denying that report now. MSCI semi-annual index review announced last evening and will be effective on Nov 30. European markets continue to pull back after the US closed on the lows once again following Obama's press conference & the escalating Israel/Hamas conflict. Volumes in Europe slightly above average thus far but not by much. Several retailers reporting in the US today. SPA's +4 handles = 1357.40 last. "'CPI / Empire Manufacturing / Jobless Claims © 8:30am / Philly Fed © loam"" EFTA_R1_00820516 EFTA02154470 ***Draghi & Monti meeting in Milan today, Bernanke speaks in ATL i 1:20pm, US Bank Stress Tests today, 13F's out*** ***DLTR, GME, HP, TGT, VIAB, WMT reports pre-open I ADSK, AMAT, DELL, GPS, INTU, MRVL, SHLD, SINA #'s post close*** • Limited Brands O3 profit -22% on lower sales but lifts year forecast ($250M buyback) • NetApp earnings beat estimates & expanded share repurchase by $1.5B (trading +10%) • Hot Topic reported stronger sales and margins (profit rose 38%) (trading up small) • Williams Sonoma net up on solid same store sales but eps view missed ests (trading -1%) • PetSmart O3 earnings beat & boosted year eps forecast (cfo to resign in 2014) (trading +5%) • Texas Instruments to cut 1,700 jobs in wireless division to trim costs (take $325M charge) • General Petraeus to testify on Benghazi behind closed doors on Friday (CBS News) • Ahold Q3 EBIT inline, US weak vs better Dutch, wam on rising commodity prices (trading +0.50%) • Antofagasta O3 EBITDA better, profit driven by copper, volumes offsetting prices (trading -1.9%) • Bouygues O3 better, EBIT & sales ahead, increasing sales guidance, maintain oil (trading +1.6%) • Atlas Copco reit cautious outlook, sees demand declining "somewhat" near term (trading -1.2%) • SBM Offshore PW, reducing rev guidance on weak order intake & production delays (trading - 8.9%) • National Grid, good H1, EPS driven by tax and lower interest, guidance unchanged (trading - 0.29%) • Merck good O3, tweaking guidance higher driven by LCD, solid performance (trading +0.50%) • Natixis light O3, expect risk costs to rise, no Coface IPO short term, broker d/g (trading -7.0%) • Subsea 7, wins $800M Martin Linge contract off of Norway, broker upgrade (trading +2.2%) • Iliad good O3 Ws, KPI's better, ADSL adds ahead, solid Fixed performance (trading +1.1%) • Zurich Insurance O3 misses (warned October 17*), poor mix vs peers (trading -3.2%) • H&M weak October sales, LFL's and growth both miss estimates (trading -3.8%) • Centrica IMS reads ok, guidance and outlook all relatively inline (trading -0.50%) • Qatar said to back Glencore bid & Xstrata bonuses in deal vote according to Bloomberg • Eurozone O3 GDP -0.1% q/q versus estimate -0.1% (-0.6% y/y versus estimate -0.6%) EFTA_R1_00820517 EFTA02154471  • German growth slowed less than forecast in Q3 (GDP +0.2% q/q versus estimate +0.1%) • France O3 preliminary GDP +0.2% q/q versus estimate +0.0% (+0.2% y/y versus estimate +0.0%) • Italy Q3 preliminary GDP -0.2% q/q versus estimate -0.5% (-2.4% y/y versus estimate -2.9%) • Spain Q3 final GDP -0.3% versus estimate -0.3% (-1.6% y/y versus estimate -1.6%) • Netherlands O3 preliminary GDP -1.1% q/q versus est -0.2% (-1.5% y/y versus est -0.5%) • UK October retail sales ex auto -0.7% m/m versus est -0.1% (+1.1% y/y versus est +2.1%) • France sells €7.5 billion in debt (5yr yields fall to a record low 0.76% vs 0.92% on Oct 18) Leading European Sectors: Banks +0.32%, Telco +0.11%, Construction -0.16% Lagging European Sectors: Retail -1.24%, Trav/Les -1.11%, Healthcare -0.89% DMND restates for 2yrs — VELT #'s miss to divest assets — BYI names ceo ZUMZ $22M buyback — FLR credit agreement — NTRI credit agreement Secondaries (announced/priced): ROC, AKS, APPY, WETF, VGR ($150M convert) IPO's (filed/priced): Heatwurx files 1.5M units at $5.10 through Gifford Key Research: DB initiates WPRT (buy), Piper upgrades HOTT, Wells upgrades EWBC & initiates HAR (mp) Key Research: CLSA upgrades BHI and HAL (buy), GS cuts CVC, Raja upgrades NTAP/SAVE, FBR initiates NSM (op) Key Research: Macquarie initiates GRA (neut), CS upgrades CTSH/MGI & cuts PAYX, Suntrust initiates TKR (buy) Key Research: JPM upgrades TWC, Barcap upgrades BAG LN, Bernstein downgrades KPN NA, BMO upgrades IMG CN Key Research: DB upgrades TKA AV (buy), BNP downgrades KN FP, GS upgrades HOC LN & cuts NYR BB Key Research: JPM cuts GAS SM, MS upgrades DIA IM, Macquarie upgrades S92 GR, UBS upgrades POP SM EFTA_R1_00820518 EFTA02154472 Key Research: SocGen upgrades OPHR LN/DIM FP/BVIC LN/BAG LN & downgrades SRS IM Reporting Pre-Open: DLTR, GME, HP, ROST, TGT, VIAB, WMT, AHONY, AMAP, BKE, BONT, BRC, CAMT, CATO, CSIQ, DANG, DEST, EJ, GSOL, HSFT, MGAM, MMS, NAFC, NAT, NTS, PERY, PLCE, SBH, SCR, SSI, SVA, TDG, TPI, TSEM, TWMC, UTSI, VIT Reporting Post-Close: ADSK, AMAT, DELL, GPS, INTU, MRVL, SHLD, ARUN, ATW, BORN, COGO, COSI, DOLE, HAVN, LONG, MATW, MTSC, NGVC, SINA, TBAC, VISN, VNET, WGL, WTSLA Economic Data: CPI / Empire Manufacturing / Jobless Claims @ 8:30am, Bloomberg Consumer Comfort @ 9:45am, Philadelphia Fed / MBA Mortgage Foreclosures & Delinquencies @ 10am EIA natural gas storage © 10:30am, DOE inventory data @ 11am Fed Speakers: Bernanke © 1:20pm (Atlanta), Fisher © 2:45pm (Stanford, CA), Plosser @ 4:30pm (DC), Dudley © 6:30pm (NY) Conferences: Citi N. American Credit (NYC), Jeff Global Healthcare (London), MS Global Chemicals (Boston) Conferences: UBS Global Tech (NYC), CS US Healthcare (Phoenix), Sandler O'Neill East Coast Fin Services (Miami) Conferences: W. Blair Financial Tech Summit (Boston), RBC MLP (Dallas) Analyst/Investor Days: TRP, CTRX, FFIV, CVG, ()UK, SANM, AEIS, PG, MFC, RDS.A, QCOM, ATO Non-Deal Roadshows: AMTG, BRO, CRUS, CSV, EA, GPOR, HOT, HSIC, INCY, INTC, KAR, LECO, LNCE, LNDC, LPI, MAND, MDVN, MKSI, OMCL, OSK, PARS, PWE, SFY, SNH, SNSS, URG, USG, VCLK, XIDE, TISA Shareholder Meetings: SLH, ZIGO, CACI, GRP, LYTS, SWS, OPXA, SMED, VHS, MTRX, CUI, CSCO, EPAY, KFFB, OBAF, RMD, AOSL Equity/Mixed Shelfs: N/A EFTA_R1_00820519 EFTA02154473 Other Newspaper Articles 8, Stories Barron's positive: Visa (V) Barron's • Democrats Like a Romney Idea on Income Tax CNBC/NYT • Canada's Goal: A pro hockey settlement before NHL slams GDP WSJ • England stunned by Ibrahimovic's 4 goals (amazing goal) Telegraph • Stocks Can't Shake Their Funk WSJ • Some Firms Shun Looser IPO Rules WSJ • This Is No Times for a NYT Dividend WSJ • Hepatitis C Drug Derailed by Deal WSJ • Caffeinated drink cited in reports of 13 deaths NYT • Obama meets CEO's as fiscal reckoning nears NYT • Greece examines a debt buyback as one way to reduce its burden NYT • No further austerity for Spain, says Rehn FT • Greece's recession deepens amid austerity FT • Italian banks — a work in progress FT • Lenders plot early LTRO repayments FT • Dismal economic data add to Europe's woes FT • One year on, Monti under pressure to stay FT • Barr / Britvic — not so soft FT • The Petraeus affair is short on substance FT • China's rapid change and missed chances FT • Europe needs to embrace banking union FT • Think the unthinkable on US debt FT • Europeans vent their anger as cuts bite Telegraph EFTA_R1_00820520 EFTA02154474 • Drugs makers are feasting on Chinese fat The Times • Currency on 'irreversible journey to global trade The Times • UK would lose AAA in a triple-dip recession Guardian • Austerity and politics: crisis, this crisis Guardian • Greek austerity is going too far, Dallara warns Guardian Key Events This Week Friday: €5 billion in Greek debt matures, Obama meeting with key Congressional leaders, US Industrial Production, TIC Flows, Earnings (SJM, NTZ) Saturday: Obama travelling to Asia November 17-21 Key Events on the Horizon November 19 — Ira Sohn London Conference November 20 — Eurogroup meeting to discuss Greece aid tranche & debt sustainability November 22/23 — EU Leaders Summit November 22 — US Thanksgiving (markets closed) November 23 — US markets 1pm close, Black Friday for Retailers November 25 — Catalonia regional election in Spain EFTA_R1_00820521 EFTA02154475  November 28 — EU FinMin teleconference (tentative) November 30 - MSCI semi-annual index rebalance December 6 — ECB & BOE rate decisions December 12 — FOMC rate decision December 22-January 20 - US Congress scheduled to adjourn January 30 — Launch date for RIM's Blackberry 10 This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. 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