EFTA02038689.pdf

To: jeevacation@gmail.com[jeevacation@gmail.com]; Jeffrey Epsteinueevacation@gmail.com) From: Dan Dubno Sent: Fri 1/27/2012 3:53:59 PM Subject: So, how goes it. Did you enjoy the lasers? Lets get together sometime... Israel is so fucked... Here's a rough guess-timate I wrote of what I think is happening: Best thing that happened is that gas field off the coast of Israel. The worst thing... everything else 0 As many as 100,000 missiles —up from 50,000 previous estimate(!)-- are now reportedly in the hands of Hezbollah in Lebanon.... Some capable of reaching Tel Aviv. Plus, far more advanced anti-aircraft weaponry that will make Israeli preemptory air attacks more difficult... and other missiles that make Israeli naval vessels more vulnerable. Hezbollah is audaciously planning to cross into Israel in force to kidnap Israel soldiers and/or civilians in the next upcoming combat. Syria —collapsing---means not only will Hezbollah most certainly get their hands on more sophisticated Russian weapon systems supplied to Syria... but there's a strong likelihood that some chemical and biological weapons Syria has stockpiled may get into Hezbollah hands. Turkey: Erdogan, pissed at getting no love or acceptance from the E.U., flexing neo-Ottoman muscles, and genuinely repulsed by the diplomatically obtuse Netanyahu administration (more his coalition than Bibi alone) ... chooses to play to the fundamentalist Moslem street and has done a pretty good job in Turkey and in the rest of the Middle East. He tapped into the fury after the strong Israeli bombardment of Gaza in Operation Cast Lead... and so Turkey throws Israel under the bus. They "reportedly" ratted out long-term Israeli intelligence agents who they had worked with for years, among other bad faith acts. Erdogan is cleaning house in the Turkish military of those who historically worked well with Israel. I suspect he has some regrets at the moment, as the collapsing Syrian situation and the very aggressive Iranian attitude toward this NATO country may reminding him of why strong allies are useful. Yet, EFTA_R1_00552835 EFTA02038689 Turkey's very aggressive naval maneuvers to harass Israel and Cyprus' oil and gas fields is also nerve-wracking. (So, just as a gesture of "screw you back" it is probably that Israeli operatives have been working to support the Kurds, just to give the Turks and the Iranians some more to worry about.) Egypt: besides the obvious (and I believe inevitable) abnegation of the peace treaty with Israel (the Islamic Brotherhood and Salafists seem eager to do this after they have rid themselves of the old Egyptian military leadership. Sure, they will miss the US multi-billion dollar subsidy to their military, but the Saudis could easily make up the difference. The Egyptian military, seeing the writing on the wall, have also allowed a substantial Al Ctaeda/ Hezbollah presence in South Sinai... and more attacks like that in Eilat are expected. Plus it is believed they (the terrorists in Sinai) also have obtained some anti-air missiles left over from the recent Libyan conflict.... So flying out of Eilat may not be a great idea... despite the anti-missile technology Israel has incorporated in commercial airplanes. If Egypt wanted to curtail the threat... and the radicalization of Bedouins in Sinai, they could... but the constant pipeline destruction is just another sign of how lackadaisical the Egyptians are: they don't want to end up on the wrong side of the Brotherhood, etc. I wish I could tell you how it will end in Iran... I do think the more politically and economically fragile that country gets, the greater incentive the extremist Mullah-dictators have to engage us in military conflict. The problem is they'd like to keep the conflict limited... and they can't predict how far the US will go... especially during an election year where everyone is falling over themselves to show who supports Israel the most. (Except for that dinkus Ron Paul.) History of these regimes is rife with examples of fomenting external conflict to unify a country that is crumbling from inside. I don't know that the Mullahs would survive the political and military disruption in the long run, but suspect it probable they'll feel "pushed" by the embargo to mine the Straits... hit Saudi and Kuwaiti oil tankers... and even fling missiles at US warships. They won't give up the nukes... they will continue working on them... even after a heavy US and or Israeli missile and aerial bombardment. They know (or believe) the US will not engage in a ground war... and they're almost certainly correct... so I think they're ready to sink a few ships... sharply raise world oil prices... have the US entangle with Russia and China... ultimately lose their 3 subs... but show that they can kill a bunch of our people with their missile boats while extracting revenge on the West for "meddling" with embargos and targeting killing of their scientists. I know this sounds like a "faith based" prediction, because I can't prove it, but I'm almost completely certain that an Iranian sponsored attack--- done in such a way that they have deniability--- is likely to occur within the next six months on some major Jewish community targets... not here in the States... but probably in Central or South America. EFTA_R1_00552836 EFTA02038690