EFTA01462241.pdf

With US data continuing to firm, the market is recalibrating when the Fed will deliver hikes - earlier rather than later On the other hand, given the ECB's stated determination to spur inflation in the Eurozone, full-blown QE looks likely next year This chart shows the correlation between EURUSD and the spread between EUR and us interest rates (yellow) (Embedded image moved to file: pic11188.gif) Source: Bloomberg 25-Sep-2014 EURINR lower as a combined play on continued inflows into India and ECB activism: Trade: A 6m EURINR 78 put (at-the-money spot) financed by selling the 83 call has zero net premium (spot ref: 77.95, forward: 80.50) With the Modi government showing decisiveness in pursuing its reform agenda, capital inflows into India look likely to continue for the foreseeable future Indian equities are at all-time highs and the entry point is not very attractive The rupee also embeds carry of 7%/year, cheapening risk reversals Chart of EURINR spot (Embedded image moved to file: pic02922.gif) Source: Bloomberg 25-Sep-2014 S&P 500 Put options dislocated relative to call options Trade: A 6m 110% calls financed by 6m 90% puts in a ratio of 4 calls bought per put sold has zero net premium (spot ref: 1998) Very high demand for SPX puts makes it possible to buy multiple calls for each call sold Across major indices, the ratio of calls-to-puts is highest for US equities Skew (y-axis) vs ATM vol (x-axis) is stretched (Embedded image moved to file: pic28156.gif) Source: Bloomberg 24-Sep-2014 Renewed interest in Japanese equities ahead of GPIF re-allocation and policy momentum Trade: A 6m 110% call financed by 6m 90% put has zero net premium (spot ref: 16374) Investors are waiting for the giant Japanese pension funds to re-allocate away from bonds to equities The Abe administration is looking for additional ways to stimulate the economy Nikkei vols are high and skew is poor -- no easy way to get into the trade, best to do calls vs puts 1-to-1 struck around major technical levels Chart showing NKY history with strike of 90% put highlighted (Embedded image moved to file: pic14425.gif) Source: Bloomberg 25-Sep-2014 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The trading and investment ideas discussed herein are general and do not take into account a client's particular circumstances (including his or her tax situation), investment guidelines, investment goals, restrictions or needs. This is not an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell, nor is it an official confirmation of terms. It is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. No representation is made that it is accurate or complete or that any returns indicated will be achieved. Changes to assumptions may have a material impact on any returns detailed. Price and CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. GRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0 124703 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00270887 EFTA01462241