EFTA02718308.pdf

From: Terje Rod -Larsen < Sent: Tuesday, August 4, 2015 5:50 PM To: Jeffrey Epstein Subject: Fwd: Attachments: dubai3_2507061bjpg; andrewcritchlow-60_2769386jjpg; comments.gif; car-dubai_ 1532483b.jpg Sent from my iPhone Begin forwarded message: From: Morits Skaugen Date: August 4, 2015 at 19:35:56 GMT+2 To: Terje Rod-Larsen <=c =nother Dubai debt crunch is looming as oil slump hits Gulfq=1> =ersian Gulf emirate could suffer the most as falling oil prices hit econom=es across the Middle East Dubai has kept borrowing despite its 2009 de=t crunch =a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/journalists/" style="outline: 0px; =ext-decoration: none; padding: Opx; background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, =);">10:25AM BST 02 =ug 2015 277 Comments chttp://www.telegr=ph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/11776815/Another-Dubai-debt-crunch-is-looming-a=- oil-slump-hits-Gulf.html#disqus_thread> Car parks filled with abandoned sand cov=red Porsche and Ferrari sports cars was an enduring image of Dubai's las= flirtation with economic oblivion five years ago. The Persian Gulf sheikhdom had loaded up=on billions of dollars debt during the last decade in a race to diversify =ts economy which unlike many of its neighbours isn't dependent on oil. The strategy came unstuck in late 2009 w=en the emirate shocked the markets when it announced it needed to freeze $26bn of debt owed by one of its largest "Government-Related En=ities" (GREs), Dubai World. Eventually Dubai was able to borrow from=Abu Dhabi, its wealthy partner in the United Arab Emirates and the nasty b=nkers in New York and London who had lent the money didn't have to mark a massive default on their balance sh=ets. It looked like Dubai was out of the wood= and the economy well on the way to recovery until late last year when the=price of oil started to plummet. Although the port city has little crude of its own its mercantile economy depends t= a large extent on the wealth and economic activity that is created around=in Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait. These energy superpowers create the econ=mic activity which sustains Dubai and its large service economic which res=s on the industrial port of Jebel Ali and the emirate's position as a transport hub. When oil is trading at $1=0 per barrel this model works well. International companies base more of their employees in Dubai and this in turn creates demand =or real estate and services such as banking and leisure. However, with oil now trading at around =50 per barrel and some forecasters warning that crude may even drop to lev=ls much lower Dubai's economy is once again looking extremely fragile. EFTA_R1_02169976 EFTA02718308 Abandoned cars i= Dubai were a common sight during the crash The International Monetary Fund (IMF) wa=ned recently that Dubai was once again loading up on debt. According to th= fund GREs have increased their net debt positions to around $93bn (E60bn) over the last year, while the emi=ate's total debt is arguably unsustainable at around 102pc of gross dome=tic product. At the same time some key drivers of Dub=i's economy are beginning to stutter. Real estate - a key driver for the=economy and one partly linked to expat employment - is in reverse. According toll'. transactions fell by almost 7=pc in the second quarter. Of course Dubai will also be able to fal= back on the financial support of Abu Dhabi and the wider UAE. However, th= fall in oil prices is now taking its toll on the entire federation. According to the IMF, the UAE's fiscal ba=ance will turn negative this year for the first time since 20O9 with a def=cit equal to 2.3pc of GDP expected. Although this isn't calamitous and the=UAE as a whole has billions of foreign currency reserves the falling oil prices is clearly a major risk. Just keep an eye out for abandoned super=ars at the airport. Best regards from Morits. sent from my iPad. - Sorry for possible typo and brief reply due to this. 2 EFTA_R1_02169977 EFTA02718309