EFTA01385516.pdf

> Healthcare Deutsche Bank 41) Fresenius — Gunnar Romer, BUY, close €65.4, €83 tgt, 27% upside s Strong outlook - we expect defensive low-teens EPS growth to 2020, Fresenius has de-rated over 2017 closer to its historical average... given sound end market dynamics, market leadership positions, and a strong management team. —?rcs jr ?:E —Average since 11;98 ■ Weak sentiment means the negatives are priced in. The shares have been weak recently on concerns over IV generics pricing and the poor performance of Akorn. - We expect consensus estimates to trough on 4Q17 results and to drive further buying of the shares. - IV generics price pressure is not outside of expectation to reassure 10 - 'Lowering the bar' on Akom should remove a key overhang. 5 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Source: Factual ■ 4Q17 results should be strong. We expect adj. NI up 22% CER, helped by a full contribution from Qironsalud and soft comps at Kabi. ... driving underperforrnance relative to the market (here. STOXX 600) ■ Valuation is undemanding at 20x 18E P/E, in line with historical 12m forward range of 18-22x P/E 80 60 54 46 36 is A number of positive catalysts to come. 40 22 25 • 25 12 . I 14 - New product launches at Kabi should surprise to the upside. 20 is • ••• 11 10 IlLo ti 0 i I MI . •• Qironsalud integration is progressing smoothly -20 • -9 • -8 - Helios Capital Markets Day should be reassuring. -24 -20 -40 • -60 an Related DB Research: CO CO CO o e- N CO Q U) fO I,- 0) Ci2 O 0 OOOO N O O CO O V O U) O O 8 ^ OOO O OOOOO O European MedTech & Services: 2018E Outlook: Significant Outperforrnance (Wang) N O4 NNNN NN N NNN Source: Fades& Deutsche Bank Cl€: fatthU Po;>earc Etifupeon Equity FOCUS - Jantay 2016 CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. GRIM. P. 6(e) DB-SDNY-0086802 CONFIDENTIAL SDNY_GM_00232986 EFTA01385516