EFTA02683120.pdf

From: Justin X Gratz Sent: Friday, July 30, 2010 7:44 PM To: Undisclosed recipients: Subject: The J.P. Morgan View Near-term uncertainties fading. Add risk via carry. Attachments: httpmarklogic-Npmchase.net8005GPS-450882-0.pdf <https://mm.jpmorgan.com/index.jsp> MorganMarkets Research Email Alerts <https://mm.jpmorgan.com/servlet/RedirectServlet?usageTracking=homePage&key_type=E&val=EMAILALERT&url=http s://mm.jpmorgan.com/index.jsp> J.P. Morgan Research has published the following on MorganMarkets. Please click on the indicated URL to access your document. Click here if your email program has trouble displaying this email. chttps://mm.jpmorgan.com/servlet/RedirectServlet?usageTracking=Document'nfoServlet&key_type=E&val =EMAI LALE R T&url=https://mm.jpmorgan.com/servlet/DocumentInfoServlet?doc_ids=GPS-450882-0&emaildate=> Headline: The J.P. Morgan View: Near-term uncertainties fading. Add risk via carry. <https://mm.jpmorgan.com/servlet/RedirectServiet?usageTracking=document&key_type=D&val= E MAILALERT&url=http s://mm.jpmorgan.com/servlet/UserDocsHelperServlet?action=openpdf%26docId=GPS-450882-0> I EFTA_R1_01999147 EFTA02683120 Author(s): Jan Loeys <https://mm.jpmorgan.com/servlet/RedirectSerylet?usageTracking=analystPage&key_type=E&val=EMARALERT&url=htt ps://mm.jpmorgan.com/servlet/PortalFW?pageName=analyst_page%26cen=U090679> , John Normand chttps://mm.jpmorgan.com/servlet/RedirectServlet?usageTracking=analystPage&key_type=E&val=EMAILALERT&url=htt ps://mm.jpmorgan.com/servlet/PortalFW?pageName=analyst_page%26cen=U070901> , Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou <https://mm.jpmorgan.com/servlet/RedirectServlet?usageTracking=analystPage&key_type=E&val=EMAILALERT&url=htt ps://mm.jpmorgan.com/servlet/PortalFW?pageName=analyst_page%26cen=U943533> , Grace Koo <https://mm.jpmorgan.com/servlet/RedirectServlet?usageTracking=analystPage&key_type=E&val=EMAIUNLERT&url=htt ps://mm.jpmorgan.com/servlet/PortalFW?pageName=analyst_page%26cen=O060125> , Seamus Mac Gorain chttps://mm.jpmorgan.com/servlet/RedirectServlet?usageTracking=analystPage&key_type=E&val=EMAILALERT&url=htt ps://mm.jpmorgan.com/servlet/PortalFW?pageName=analyst_page%26cen=N274779> , Matthew Lehmann <https://mm.jpmorgan.com/servlet/RedirectServlet?usageTracking=analystPage&key_type=E&val=EMAILALERT&url=htt ps://mm.jpmorgan.com/servlet/PortalFW?pageName=analyst_page%26cen=l968117> Abstract: • Economics —Japan H2 growth forecast cut to 1.7% from 2.5%. Downshift in global industry not a precursor to double dip. • Asset allocation — We move from flat to net long on risky assets by adding in credit through HY and non-core EMU. • Fixed Income — Mildly long duration in Europe and EM. Hold carry positions, adding EMU non-core bonds. Hold swap spread wideners in USD and EUR. • Equities —Overweight EM, underweight small caps, underweight manufacturing sensitive sectors, overweight banks. • Credit — With industrial HG bond yields at a record low, we favour higher yielding credits such as high yield and subordinated bonds. • FX — Dollar to weaken further against EUR and JPY. • Commodities — Stay overweight agriculture on increased risks to supply. Link: https://mm.jpmorgan.com/servlet/UserDocsHelperServlet?action=openpdf&docId=GPS-450882-0 <https://mm.jpmorgan.com/serylet/RedirectSerylet?usageTracking=document&key_type=D&val= E MAI LALERT&url=http s://mm.jpmorgan.com/serylet/UserDocsHelperServlet?action=openpdf%26docId=GPS-450882-0> 2 EFTA_R1_01999148 EFTA02683121 MorganMarkets, J.P. Morgan's research and market data portal, provides a single point of access to the firm's award- winning research across all asset classes, plus analytics, market data and proprietary tools. With MorganMarkets, you will have 24/7 access to the actionable ideas, strategy recommendations and analysis that truly distringuish J.P. Morgan as the leader in investment research. If you wish to change your J.P. 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