EFTA02359644.pdf

From: Daniel Sabba Sent: Tuesday, January 20, 2015 3:59 AM To: jeevacation@gmail.com' Cc: Vahe Stepanian Subject: Fw: DB Special Situations: Shopping List [C] Attachments: image001jpg Classification: Confidential FYI - below is a note on Twitter (third from the top) from DB's special sits franchise. From: Bryan Fingeroot Sent: Wednesday, January 14, 2015 03:56 PM Cc: Mark Hibbert Subject: DB Special Situations: Shopping List Sales Notes Only / For Institutional Use Only Given the rapid moving market, we wanted to mention some ideas that we think are interesting risk/rewards here. We kept the list tight to make it readable in 60 seconds, we have models and good research analysts on all of these so let us know if you would like to follow up on anything. As always these are sales notes only, follow links or email us for additional research and full view of risks. -DB Team North Star Financial (NRF) Why: 8% dividend yield, interesting sum of the parts, excellent value creating management team, hidden value. Possible Catalyst: Split company into two parts to re-rate multiple, could also see RMZ add, possible dividend increase DB Target: $22.50 Last note: https://ger.gm.cib.intranet.db.com/ger/document/pdf/0900b8c088f08cc8.pdf <https://ger.gm.cib.intranet.db.com/ger/document/pdf/0900b8c088f08cc8.pdf> EFTA_R1_01348938 EFTA02359644 DB Analyst: Stephen Laws Applied Materials (AMAT) Why: If the Tokyo Electron deal closes earnings power should be in the $2-$2.50 range, give it a mid teens multiple to account for their technology leadership and position in the 4 company industry. Possible Catalyst: Closing of Tokyo deal would lead to EPS being revised higher and re-rating of the stock price DB Target: $30 Last note: https://ger.gm.cib.intranet.db.com/ger/document/pdf/0900b8c088feacf9.pdf <https://ger.gm.cib.intranet.db.com/ger/document/pdf/0900b8c088feacf9.pdf> DB Analyst: Sidney Ho Twitter (TVVTR) Why: Seems that the pressure is on management to unlock some value by switching up the business model a bit. Stock is out of favor with 7.5% of the float short but it seems with such a massive user base that with the right move value could get unlocked here. Possible Catalyst: Any business model shift to show ability to monetize user base would be well received. DB Target: $60 Last note: https://ger.gm.cib.intranet.db.com/ger/document/pdf/0900b8c088e52151.pdf <https://ger.gm.cib.intranet.db.com/ger/document/pdf/0900b8c088e52151.pdf> DB Analyst: Ross Sandler Dynegy (DYN) Why: Company is making two big acquisitions which will transform it into a premier IPP in good markets. Possible Catalyst: Re-rating upwards post closing of the deals with possible upside from buybacks and PJM pricing 013 Target: $44 Last note: https://ger.gm.cib.intranet.db.com/ger/document/pdf/GDPBD00000272886.pdf <https://ger.gm.cib.intranet.db.com/ger/document/pdf/GDPBD00000272886.pdf> DB Analyst: Jon Arnold 2 EFTA_R1_01348939 EFTA02359645 Softbank (9984 JT) Why: Very wide discount to NAV makes for a compelling entry point. Possible Catalyst: Any sort of strategic action to lower tax bill for BABA or collapse discount to NAV would be a big positive. DB Target: 9500 Last note: https://ger.gm.cib.intranet.db.com/ger/document/pdf/0900b8c0890ec359.pdf <https://ger.gm.cib.intranet.db.com/ger/document/pdf/0900b8c0890ec359.pdf> OB Analyst: Peter Milliken MGM (MGM) Why: Dislocated due to no direct Vegas comp and Macau weakness, very attractive sum of the parts valuation with tailwinds from Vegas. Possible Catalyst: Show improving results in Vegas, stabilization in Macau, highlight upcoming value from Cotai buildout DB Target: $29 Last note: https://ger.gm.cib.intranet.db.com/ger/document/pdf/0900b8c0892c105e.pdf <https://ger.gm.cib.intranet.db.com/ger/document/pdf/0900b8c0892c105e.pdf> DB Analyst: Carlo Santarelli Baxter (BAX) — negative view Why: Headwinds including generic cycle, FX, pension and potential extra costs from upcoming Baxalta spin could lead to lower EPS Catalyst: Possible cuts to EPS estimates Hold, DB Target $66 Last note: http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/cgi-bin/pull/DocPull/391-72D5/63633069/0900b8c089321efa.pdf <http://pultdb-gmresearch.com/cgi-bin/pull/DocPull/391-72D5/63633069/0900b8c089321efa.pdf> DB Analyst: Kristen Stewart E*Trade (ETFC) Why: Company focused on deploying excess capital, upside to stock as we get closer to normalized earnings, possible M&A 3 EFTA_R1_01348940 EFTA02359646 Catalyst: Big catalysts would be rates going up and/or M&A chatter with competitor AMTD, small catalysts would be smart capital deployment DB Target: $26 Last note: http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/cgi-bin/pull/DocPull/1456-B532/43506374/0900b8c0892cb106.pdf chttp://pull.db-gmresearch.com/cgi-bin/pull/DocPull/1456-8632/43506374/0900b8c0892cb106.pdf> DB Analyst: Brian Bedell Higher Risk Ideas: Nuance (NUAN) Why: Near 52 week low, cheapest stock in our software universe on PIE at 11x, business model adjustment has lead to weaker growth but we think that will turnaround in the future. 70% market share in voice technology, very strong patent portfolio. Possible Catalyst: Unclear but could be a sale, split or just multiple re-rating if they can start to grow again, smart activist is top holder DB Target: $25 Last note: https://ger.gm.cib.intranet.db.com/ger/document/pdf/0900b8c08903d5cl.pdf chttps://ger.gm.cib.intranet.db.com/ger/document/pdf/0900b8c08903d5cl.pdf> DB Analyst: Nandan Amladi Key Energy (KEG) Why: Stock is trading like an option at this point, we think the company will survive a tough energy Possible Catalyst: stabilization of energy tape, covenant relief DB Target: $4 Last note: http://pulldb-gmresearch.com/cgi-bin/pull/DocPull/387-72DD/3588854/0900b8c088ebd4al.pdf <http://pulI.db-gmresearch.com/cgi-bin/pull/DocPull/387-72DD/3588854/0900b8c088ebd4al.pdf> DB Analyst: Mike Urban Cott (COT) Why: Post DS Services acquisition company becomes a FCF machine with nice synergies 4 EFTA_R1_01348941 EFTA02359647 Possible Catalyst: Updates on integration of acquisition, reporting a few smooth quarters in a row should lead to multiple expansion DB Target: $9 Last note: https://ger.gm.cib.intranet.db.com/ger/document/pdf/0900b8c088ffcb8e.pdf chttps://ger.gm.cib.intranet.db.com/ger/document/pdf/0900b8c0881fcb8e.pdf> DB Analyst: Bill Schmitz Bryan Fingeroot I Deutsche Bank Managing Director / Co-Head of Special Situations Team Institutional Equity Sales <mailto Direct: "Please see www.db.com <http://www.db.com/> for a copy of Deutsche Bank Securities Inc's research reports, these reports may relate to the companies and securities mentioned in the above message and contain important disclosures". https://ederivatives.db.com/static/disclaimer.html <https://ederivatives.db.com/static/disclaimer.html> For Institutional Client Use Only eDisclaimer <https://ederivatives.db.com/static/disclaimer.html> This communication may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communication in error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this communication. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this communication is strictly forbidden. Deutsche Bank does not render legal or tax advice, and the information contained in this communication should not be regarded as such. 5 EFTA_R1_01348942 EFTA02359648