EFTA00413694.pdf

From: Ike Groff Subject: Early Tour 5.8.12 Date: Tue, 08 May 2012 10:17:42 +0000 Good Morning ... European Markets off 45-120 bps (CAC -1.9%, MIB -1.8%, FTSE -0.21%) Nikkei +0.69%, HSI -0.25%, China -0.12%, KOSPI +0.54% EUR 1.3018 (-0.25%) JPY 79.77 (+0.18%) NZD 0.7893 (-0.68%) AUD 1.0134 (-0.62%) Copper -2.08% Silver -1.65% US 10yr 1.84% Futures: Dow -69, Nasdaq -17, S&P -7 DXY $79.78 (+18c) Crude $96.89 (-$1.05) Gold $1626.80 (-$12.30) Politics still at the forefront in Europe this morning after Greece's New Democracy failed to form a coalition after 6 hours of talks yesterday afternoon. The mandate now passes to the radical left Syriza party (anti-bailout) who will have 3 days to attempt to bring together its own coalition amongst the Democratic Left and the Communists. If Syriza fails as well, then the Pasok party will get one final chance. If a coalition is not formed by May 17, a technocrat government will be appointed to lead the country to fresh elections as early as June 17 (high probability of this). Meanwhile, Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann writes a piece in the FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bc917f20-9607-11e1-9d9d- 00144feab49a.html#axzzluFwoqqQT> in which he argues that "monetary policy is not a panacea and central bank firepower is not unlimited." European markets fading a bit and the CAC -1.85% has now given up all of yesterday's futures led rally. UK re-opens from bank holiday so volumes better this morning (FTSE outperforming b/c HSBS). Stoxx600 volume running 120% of 20 day average despite Germany's Xetra being halted for the first 75 minutes this morning due to technical issues. EUR testing 1.30 again. Copper getting hit -2.08%. Note India's Sensex -2.2% into the close on heavy foreign selling. S&P futures -7 handles = 1358.20 last. ***DISCA, DTV, WEN, MCD comps pre-open / DIS reports after close*** ***Fed's Fisher speaks at 12:45pm on ways to strengthen economy*** ***Conferences: UBS Financial Services (NYC), Bofa Global Tech (SF), Wells Industrial (NYC)*** Wynn Resorts earnings fell 19% (missed ests) as Las Vegas revs fell 8.1% (trading -1.5%) Penn National Gaming to acquire Harrah's St. Louis from Caesars Entertainment for $610 million HSBC 01 IMS beat, PBT well ahead, good revs/cost mix, structural concerns remain (trading ) Rackspace fell short on bottom line (currency exchange rates impacted revs) (trading -13%) Vivus loss wider than estimates (citing increased G&A costs from Qnexa spending) Electronic Arts forecast 01 loss of 40-45c vs -33c ests (revenue view light too) (trading -9%) Mako Surgical came in light (expensive eqpmt resulted in "unpredictability") (trading -20%) Synchronoss (SNCR) fell -20% after reporting slowing demand from largest customer AT&T Barneys New York has been taken over by Perry Capital in a debt-for-equity swap American Movil offers E8/shr cash to raise stake in KPN to as much as 28% = 23.5% EFTA00413694 premium Santorum officially endorses Romney ("we both agree that President Obama must be defeated") Fitch Ratings says that it will not comment on France's AAA rating before 2013 German March industrial production rises 2.8% versus estimate +0.80% Vacant Athens office space soared to 20% in Q1 from 15.5% last year (eKathimerini<http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite2_1_07/05/2012_441095>) Hocthief Q1 loss inline, confirms FY guidance, good order backlog, Leighton poor (trading +0.63%) Adecco Q1 overall better, good growth in N America, strong EM, keeps FY targets (trading +2.1%) DSM Q1 small beat, cautious on outlook, pharmas remain tough, Europe weak (trading -1.2%) Luxottica 01 sales/op income better, strong EM, positive outlook for 2012 (trading -3.3%) Deutsche Post Q1 small beat, confirms FY outlook, DHL doing well (trading -1.0%) Telenor Ql good across the board, reiterates mid term guidance (trading +1.4%) Pandora revs inline, EBIT and net profit better, keeps FY outlook (trading +3.7%) Statoil Q1 very strong across the board, reits guidance on vols and capex (trading +0.90%) PostNL Ql Net/EBIT ahead, confirms guidance despite weaker than exp start (trading -4.8%) TUI Travel Q2 look ok with UK strong and summer trading inline (trading -0.70%) ACS Ql in line, net debt deterioration due to Hochtief (trading -4.7%) Aviva reports that Andrew Moss to step down as CEO with immediate effect (trading +3.0%) Insurers #'s out: Swiss Life (-2.5%), Munich Re (-2.0%), Sampo (-0.60%), Hiscox (unch) Israeli opposition party Kadima signs an agreement to join PM Natanyahu's ruling coalition Asahi Group will pay $1.5 billion for Calpis milk beverage maker from Ajinomoto Marubeni said to be close to buying US grain trader Gavilon for $5 billion (private) S.74 robust Q1 results with profit up 22%, Cotai land grant as future catalyst (closed -0.71%) Toshiba forecast net income 135b Yen vs est 127.6B Yen (to focus on flash memory) Mitsubishi sees record profit this yr (help of higher commodity prices) (closed +3.65%) Fuji Heavy climbed 7.3% after raising profit growth forecast on rising China/US demand EFTA00413695  South Korea PPI = +2.4% in April y/y (cooled to slowest pace in 26mos vs +2.8% in March) Australia posts biggest trade deficit in over 2yrs in March (imports outpaced exports by $1.68) Australia Treasurer Wayne Swan announces that the country is deferring 1.0% corporate tax cut New Zealand budget deficit $626M wider than forecast in 9mos through March on tax shortfall Leading European Sectors: Telco +1.40%, Real Estate +0.29%, Retail +0.20% Lagging European Sectors: Autos/Parts -2.26%, Basic Res -2.03%, Fin Services -1.73% PBI eps beats/revs misses - MSPD 4's better - SYKE guides down CLNE loss widens - CKEC record results - DMND names ceo ONTY net income up - PAA earnings beat - LOPE guides higher KAR rev up, profit down - DTSI reaffirms view - DNB cuts forecast GA strength in ZT online - ULTA boosts guidance - NUS raises view Notable Options Activity Yesterday: ANF (49.00 -3%) opening cust bought 5000 may 52.5/57.5 call spreads for .95 earnings 5.16 9% higher breakeven PVH (84.08 -1.8%) opening cust bought 2500 dec 70/82.5 put spreads vs selling 2500 dec 92.5 calls collected .55 on 3 way most likely protecting gains (+19% ytd) thru end of year but still maintaining 10% upside exposure JNPR ($19.25 -2.3%) customer sold 17,076 June 22 calls at $0.23 to open. Breakeven represents 14% upside in the stock over the next month. WAG ($33.57 -0.2%) 10,000 July 31 puts were purchased for $0.69. Earning appear to be next at the end of June. Secondaries (announced/priced): PMT, KKD, SAVE (block trade), ULTA & WWWW (holders), CLMT IPO's (filed/priced): N/A Key Research: Barcap upgrades VECO & downgrades BP & initiates RXN (ow) and MM few), Wells upgrades VRTX Key Research: Canaccord initiates UTEK (buy) & upgrades XEC (buy), Citi downgrades ERJ, FBR upgrades NNN Key Research: DB upgrades LPX (buy), Imperial initiates URS (op) & downgrades NCMI, Atlantic downgrades EP Key Research: JPM intiates ALNY (ow), Janney initiates APH (buy) and MOLX (newt), BB&T downgrades RAH Key Research: Mizuho downgrades MAKO, Baird upgrades CTSH & downgrades TNB & initiates RXN (op) Key Research: Raja initiates UIS (op) and CSC/PLT (mp's) and SAPE (strong buy), ISI initiates POM (hold) Key Research: MS upgrades DRC, Needham upgrades EA (buy), Opco initiates MACK (op), Bofa downgrades SYNC Reporting Pre-Open: DISCA, DTV, FOSL, HCN, HSIC, IFF, LINTA, PRGO, TAP, THC, AAON, ADES, AER, AIS, AKRX, AMED, AMRC, APO, ARCC, AUGT, AVNR, BIP, BKR, BLT, BR, BSTC, CASH, CBR, CDI, CFX, CHTR, CMLP, CORE, CRIS, CR2O, CVLT, CVU, DFZ, DM, DUSA, EBIX, EF, EMC, EXK, FRM, GET, GLP, GNRC, GTXI, ABC, HK, HL, IBI, IDSA, INSM, KWK, LIOX, LMCA, LMIA, LNCE, LRN, MDF, MEDW, NVE, NXST, NXTM, OHI, OMX, PCX, PDC, PESI, PIKE, PRX, PTRY, RAIL, RST, SCON, SEED, SLCA, SMG, SPMD, SSP, STE, STWD, STXS, TDG, TGH, THS, TLP, VNDA, VPG, VSI, WEN, XTEX, XTXI, YORW, GEOI, HE, PMD, ROSE, SGA, VOG EFTA00413696 Reporting Post-Close: DIS, EOG, XL, ACAD, ACTS, AMRN, AMRS, ARAY, ARC, ARCL, ARTNA, ARWR, ATEC, BEAT, CHKM, CIX, CMRE, COKE, CQB, CT, CVG, CEPO, DIOD, DMD, EGY, EIG, ETE, ETP, EVC, EVOL, EXE, FNGN, FSC, GCA, GFF, GIVN, GPOR, GSB, GSIG, HCKT, MINX, HTGC, IILG, INFI, ISIS, JAll, JIVE, KCG, LCI, LPSN, LTRE, MDVN, MED, MELI, MEMS, MLR, MODL, MAX, MTSI, NILE, OMER, OPWV, ORA, OUTD, PIP, PL, POWL, PRMW, PASS, PTIX, RAH, RBCN, RGP, RSOL, SB, SGEN, SLH, SNTS, SRDX, SSRI, STEC, STKL, SWS, TAST, TCX, TNGO, TRAK, TSON, TSRX, TTGT, URS, VISN, VTSS, WRI, WTI, XOMA, XOXO, XRM, ZIPR Economic Data: NFIB Small Business Optimism @ 7:30am, ICSC-Goldman Chain Store @ 7:45am, Redbook Chain Store @ 8:55am, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism / JOLTs Job Openings @ 10am Treasury auctions in 3yr notes @ 1pm ($32B), API crude oil inventories @ 4:30pm Speakers: ECB's Draghi @ 8:30am (Frankfurt), Fed's Fisher 00 1:45pm (Dallas) Conferences: Sofa Online Gaming Symposium (Sydney), Susquehanna Energy & Resources (NYC), DB Healthcare (Boston) Conferences: Jeff TMT (NYC), UBS Global Financial Services (NYC), MS Services Summit (NYC) Conferences: Sofa Global Tech (SF), Wells Industrial and Construction (NYC), Baird Growth Stock (Chicago) Analyst/Investor Days: AEGN, AHT, CAR, RST, DDD, ISIL Non-Deal Roadshows: ALLT, AUMN, BRCM, CAH, CAMT, CCM, CKSW, CYNO, EXLS, GASS, HSC, KR, LLL, MASI, MIPS, MJN, MRCY, NE, OCZ, RVBD, S, SCAN, SIRO, SO, SPSC, TMK, TUP, UMBF, WDC, WRE, XLNX Shareholder Meetings: MT, CVD, CRL, VIAS, CMLS, CNS, CNW, COKE, DEXO, DRC, FOR, NLSN, NWL, OEM, TRMK, WTI, ZMH, AGII, BWC, CDE, CWH, D, PKG, ALV, ANAD, BAX, BSX, COF, CRRB, FORA, JRN, MAS, MCBC, NATI, OMG, TKR, WTW, ITT, BID, CMI, CRK, CUE, CVR, DAR, ELS, FST, HDNG, HSKA, HTCO, KDN, L, MMM, ORLY, WERN, CLF, DST, HNI, NVR, CBG, ALTE, AMTG, BLC, BMRN, COBR, 0, TC, TTI, TRC, XTXI, HEK, ORA, ANTH, PRO, CRFN, DHR, GBNK, ONFC, ALTR, PCL, IVAC, CACB Equity/Mixed Shelfs: ENR, DHR, TZYM ($100M) Other Newspaper Articles & Stories WSJ discusses: Homebuilders (BZH, MDC, SPF) WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/S1110001424052702303630404577390401389176554.html> A New Port Emerges for Global Investors WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/S1110001424052702304451104577389901216117034.html? mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_0> India's Stock Market Riding Into Rough Weather WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304363104577389280757822516.html? mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_1> Japanese Games Firms Fear Regulator's Habit WSJ Heard on the Street<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304451104577390001856978924.html? mod=ITP_moneyandinvesting_5> Jury Finds Android Infringed Copyright WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/S1110001424052702304451104577390262489080148.html? mod=ITP_marketplace_1> Ontario Teachers Oppose Sprint CEO for Board WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article/S1110001424052702304363104577390643267646310.html? mod=ITP_marketplace_1> The Race: Build the Instagram of Video WSJ<http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB10001424052702304451104577390333679922236- 1MyQjAxMTAyMDAwNzEwNDcyWj.html> EFTA00413697  As Car Owners Downsize, the Market Is Strong for Their Used S.U.V.'s NYT<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/08/business/used-full-size-suvs-are-making-a- comeback.html> Liberals Steer Outside Money to Grass-Roots Organizing NYT<http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/08/us/politics/liberals-putting-super-pac-money-into- grass-roots.html?_r=2> Obesity could affect 42% of Americans by 2030 USA Today<http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/story/2012-05-07/obesity-projections- adults/54791430/1> Rehn signals move to ease deficit clamp FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7adb36f4-9858- 11el-ad3e-00144feabdc0.html4axzzluFoJECeG> Bankia's failure to face reality brings back crisis FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/55f22662-9863-11e1-8617-00144feabdc0.htmlftaxzzluFoJECeG> Greece braces for a repeat of elections FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a3b362da-9868- 11e1-8617-00144feabdc0.htmliaxzzluFoJECeG> The Greek crisis will fast expose Mr Hollande FT Comment<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/77e65d0e-9608-11e1-9d9d-00144feab49a.htmlffaxzzluFoJECeG> Merkel urges Athens to stick with reform FT<http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fb8abe22- 9845-11e1-8617-00144feabdc0.html#axzzluFoJECeG> Eurozone crisis: democracy trumps austerity but will the euro survive? Guardian<http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/may/07/eurozone-crisis-democracy-trumps- austerity-euro> Recession plus austerity equals loss of political power Guardian<http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/economics-blog/2012/may/04/recession-austerity- loss-political-power> New eurozone crisis looms as Spain prepares bail-out Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9250986/New-eurozone-crisis- looms-as-Spain-prepares-bail-out.html> Merkel faces a fight for the eurozone's future Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9250840/German-Chancellor- Angela-Merkel-faces-a-fight-for-the-eurozones-future.html> EU plans measures against Argentina over Repsol Telegraph<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/9251331/EU-plans- measures-against-Argentina-over-Repsol.html> Euro heading for freefall in echo of housing crash Independent<http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/euro-heading-for-freefall-in- echo-of-housing-crash-7720776.html> Voters Agree on One Thing: Discontent Independent<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303630404577388230868143206.html> New FTSE index would better reflect UK economy Independent<http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/new-ftse-index-would-better- reflect-uk-economy-7720778.html> Manufacturers must step up pace to meet Osborne's target The Times<http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/economics/article3407449.ece> `Monopoly fixes rules to keep new players out of the game' The Times<http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/banking/article3407547.ece> HSBC to increase money set aside for PPI mis-selling claims The EFTA00413698 Times<http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9250881/HSBC-to- increase-money-set-aside-for-PPI-mis-selling-claims.html> Spain prepares public cash to save banks `as last resort' The Times<http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/economics/article3407572.ece> Key Events This Week Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, Wholesale Inventories, Russia closed (Victory Day), Davidson Financial Services Conference (Seattle), Earnings (DF, TEVA, SODA, ATVI, CSCO, MNST, NWSA, PCLN) Thursday: Treasury Monthly Budget Statement, Trade Balance, BOE rate decision, Spanish PM to announce important financial measures, China CPI/PPI (9:30pm), Houlihan Lokey Global Industrials Conference (NYC), Earnings (AGO, KSS, WIN, CA, ESRX, NUAN) Friday: PPI, U of Michigan Confidence, China retail sales s industrial production, EU Commission publishes its spring economic forecast for 2012-13, Earnings (NVDA) Ike Groff 680 Washin ton Blvd Stamford, CT 06901 • I• (Description: Description: cid:image001.png@01CBB0FB.045D89F0) This e-mail and any files transmitted with it are confidential and intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed. 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