EFTA01193686.pdf

From: Nay Gupta .d To: jeeyacation(kgmail.com Cc: Tazia Smith < , Paul Morris < >, Subject: Jeffrey - I like Alpha Bank (Greece) listed Call Warrants (ticker ALPHAW GA) to play the Greek story from here Date: Fri, 27 Jun 2014 09:22:03 +0000 Inline-Images: unnamed; unnamed(1); unnamed(2); unnamed(3); unnamed(4); unnamed(5); unnamed(6) Suggest sizing to worst case because the warrant is levered to the stock and the stock itself has 40% delivered vol 125,000 warrants (currently 1.81/1.82 size 100k x 25k) listed on athens exchange) cost EUR227k = $309k Daily turnover is currently just under lmillion warrants per day so 125k warrants bought carefully should be no prob in 1-2 days. for 250k warrants i would suggest working an order for 2-3 days but i would avoid >350k of warrants because then its tricky to liquidate efficiently. Recall, 1 warrant allows the holder to exercised into 7.408683 shares at a price of 0.4686 on 10dec14 (and at a fractionally higher px in the future). Worst case Valuation analysis: Stock Warrant intrinsic 0.40 0 0.50 0.23 0.60 0.97 070 171, 0.80 2.46 0.90 3.20 For the warrant to lose say 80% of its value, the stock would need to trade down to 0.45 or 0.50 from 0.69 currently. In fact a year ago the stock was trading at 0.5 (athough the warrant was trading 1.00 then) So i would size conservatively. Nav Nav Gupta Managing Director Deutsche Bank AG. Filele London Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management 105 rs Hall). EC2N 1EN London. United Kingdom Tel. Email Any proposed ideas are being delivered to you by the DeAWM Key Client Partners ('KCP') London desk for discussion purposes only, and do not create any legally binding obligation on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and / or its affiliates ("DE'). These ideas are for the consideration of the intended recipients of this mail only. The KCP London desk does not provide investment advice. All intended recipients are Professional investors (as defined by MiFID). who understand the strategy. characteristics and risks associated with any ideas proposed herein and will be able to evaluate it independently. All trades on proposed ideas shall be subject to the relevant internal approvals prior to execution. EFTA01193686 PaninoV Melton. From: -Jeffrey E." <jeevacation@gmailcorn> To: Nav Guptaic Date: 26/06/2014 20:10 Subject: Re: Jeffrey - I like Alpha Bank (Greece) listed Call Warrants (ticker ALPHAW GA) to play the Greek story from here size? On Thu, Jun 26, 2014 at 2:34 PM, Nay Gupta < > wrote: Jeffrey I like the Greek recovery story i like Alpha Bank among the banks there and I think the 3.5yr call warrants issued a year ago which have very little time value priced in and priced close to intrinsic are the best way to buy the stock and the broader story. Background 1. Greece experienced a worse recession than the Eurozone. The wage and unemployment adjustments have been far more severe than the Eurozone. Greece's economy is showing signs of return to growth over the next year. IMF forecasts 0.6% GDP growth 2014 and faster growth than broad Eurozone from 2015+. 2. In the short term bank asset quality continues to deteriorate. NPL is 35, double the rate of Italy and > 3x that of Spain 3. Greek banks raised eur50bn in 2013 to recapitalise losses from Greek Govt bond PSI (private sector involvement). The sector is now 35-70% state owned. Greek Banks Presently Greek banks rank as some of the least profitable in Europe (ROA <0.5%, ROE 2-2.5%). Looking forward to 2018 they should trade at least in line with European banks. Sector consolidation, NC asset disposal, rapidly declining cost of wholesale funds and efficiency savings will all contribute to that. The Sector comprises Alpha Bank, Eurobank, Nat Bk of Greece and Piraeus. The are no longer distressed and trade broadly in-line with European peers in terms of EPS and TBV multiples. Alpha Bank (ALPHA GA) Of the three, Alpha Bank looks the most interesting. It trades at a discount to the others and has less complex re-structuring. A recent capital raise increased CT1 to 12%. Most analysts prefer Alpha Bank to its peers for these reasons. Alpha Bank Stock Price EFTA01193687  • Last Price 0.69 T High on 10/23/09 4.6085 -0- Average 1.2225 1 Low on 01/10/12 0.1498 tp• Volume 15.089M LIM SMAVG (15) 33.801M 14 / .0 1.11- &SAILA 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ALPHA GA Equity Capita Sank AZ) Daily 273U1420D9-26Xel2014 Copyright,: 2014 accenterg Fi Ver recent anal st tar et 111rices for Aloha Bank are lar • el above the current . rice GRAB AFIl; i3; Equity 95) Actions - 90 Alert Analyst Recommendations 7 Alpha Bank At 06/26/14 O 'Consensus EUR 6H 1Y 2Y 5Y Max Consensus Rating 3.95 100/ I2M Tel Pr A.84 ▪ 0.30 Buys 59.1% 13 • Price Holds 27.3% 6 %Buy • 0.60 SO. Sells 13.6% 3 t 4113 P-0.40 12M Tgt Px 17/23 0.84 041 k0.20 Last Price 0.69 0.00-0 ■ Price Spread (Tgt -14/0ThedalinN...r_ Return Potential 21.7% LTM Return 80.2% Jun' Dec Hai- . Jun Dec , ,Jun. 2012 I 2013 2014 • Shove In-House Data r--- wm Analyst Recommendation Tgt Px Date! O. Yr Rtn BIRRIKth-Tr-- 1) Wood & Company Alexandros Bouloug buy 0.90 06/20/14 lit" 2) Euroxx Securities Maria Kanellopoulo overweight 0.90 06/19/14 15.00% 1st 1st le_.' 3) Alpha Finance Nikolaos Lianeris restricted 06/17/14 li' 4) Natixis Alex Koagne 10 reduce 0.75 06/16/14 le_.' 5) Pantelakis Securities Paris Mantzavras overweight 0.90 06/13/14 li' 6) Nomura Daragh Quinn buy 0.75 06/12/14 0.20% 2nd lef 7) Credit Suisse Hugo Swann 10 neutral 0.80 06/11/14 lam' 8) 0 Barclays Kiri Vijayarajah 10 overweight 0.92 06/10/14 la 9) el Goldman Sachs Pawel Dziedzic Buy/Neutral 0.80 06/06/14 lam' 10) 0 HSBC Tamer Sengun t overweight 0.87 06/06/14 la 11) IBG Research (ESN) Konstantinos Manol buy 1.10 06/06/14 lam' 12) Deutsche Bank Rahul Shah li buy 0.90 06/04/14 in" Australia 61 2 9777 8600 Brazil 5511 3048 4500 Europe 44 20 7330 7500 Germany 49 69 9204 1210 Hong Kong 852 2977 6000 Japan 81 3 3201 8900 Singapore 65 6212 1000 U.S. 1 212 318 2000 Copyright 2014 Bloomberg Finance SN 622439 H622-433-3 26-Jun-14 14.11:47 BST GMT+1:00 Warrants EFTA01193688 A year ago the bank issued 4.5year call warrants, exercisable every six months into the stock at a price schedule (appendix A) that varies over time the relationship between the warrant (which settles physically) and the stock price is: [current stock price (0.69) - next exercise price of warrant (0.4686)] x leverage ratio 7.408 — intrinsic warrant px — 1.64. Now, the warrant is offered at 1.83. The value here is that the difference between 1.83 and 1.64, in my view, doesnt compensate for the optionality you get holding the warrant compared to just holding the stock. Warrant price 2.20 2.00 1.83 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 ■Volume 0245M SOM ■ SMAVG (15) 2.397M 0.24511 Sep Dec Mar Jun 2013 I 2014 ALPHAW GA Equity (Alpha Bank AE) Daily 26JUN2013-26JUN2014 Copyright 2014 Bloomberg Finance . 26-Jun-2014 14:22:20 Were the stock to rise 10% over the next month the warrant would rise in value from 1.83 by approx 22%. Conversely if the stock were to fall the warrants would also fall - but its unlikely the warrant price trades at zero anytime soon due to the 3.5years of remaining time value. The warrants are quoted several thousand up /tick wide on exchange. Any qns shout. Appendix A WARRANT ENTITLES HOLDER TO ACQUIRE NEW COMMON SHARES HELD BY HFSF AT A RATIO OF 7.408683070. ISSUE AMOUNT: 1,233,503,482. STEP-UP STRIKE:0.4488 12/10/2013, 0.4576 06/10/2014, 0.4686 12/10/2014, 0.4796 06/10/2014, 0.4928 12/10/2015, 0.506 06/10/2016, 0.5214 12/10/2016, 0.5368 06/10/2017, 0.5544 12/10/2017 Nav Nav Gupta Managing Director EFTA01193689 Deutsche Bank AG. Filiale London Deutsche Asset 8 Wealth Management 1051108 Old Broad St (Pinners Hall). EC2N 1EN London. United Kingdom Tel.4 Mob Email Any proposed ideas are being delivered to you by the DeAWM Key Client Partners ("KCP") London desk for discussion purposes only. and do not create any legally binding obligation on the part of Deutsche Bank AG and! or its affiliates ("Dr). These ideas are for the consideration of the intended recipients of this mail only. The KCP London desk does not provide investment advice. All intended recipients are Professional investors (as defined by MiFID). who understand the strategy. characteristics and risks associated with any ideas proposed herein and will be able to evaluate it independently. 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