EFTA02687642.pdf

From: Daniel Sabba Sent: Friday, March 20, 2015 7:59 PM To: jeffrey E. Subject: RE: FW: EOD Commodities Note - 20 Mar (C) Attachments: 182298_20150319_20150320_1.pdf Classification: Confidential It was marked at -341k as=of yesterday's close. Attached. <=p> jeffrey E. [mailto:jeevacation@gmail.comj Sent: Friday, March 20, 2015 3:56 PM To: Daniel Sabba Subject: Re: FW: EOD Commodities Note - 20 Mar Net p$ Ion vol trade ?? On Friday, March 20, 2015, Daniel Sabba > wrote: From: Prateek Jain Sent: Friday, March 20, 2015 3:35 PM Subject: EOD Commodities Note - 20 Mar OIL Both crudes rallied strongly today with multiple bullish news alon= with dollar weakness. Iran delegation left nuclear talks after meet=ng with John Kerry and said the talks will resume on 25th. Kerry stated that talks need high-level consult=tions. These headlines reduced the optimism about talks ending positively =nd crude rallied quickly from there. April WTI expired today, very strong =ompared to May contract. Guess what.. Cushing isn't full yet! Cost of storage at Cushing is much be=ow the current spread level and all the CSO open in interest in apr/may ex=ired yesterday leaving the spread back to fundamentals. April/May spread m=ved from -1.57 yesterday to -0.75 intraday ending at -0.85. Very short market positioning also escalated the rally in=the spread with stops triggering on way higher. US oil rig count fell by 41 to 825..we are now close to 50% below the p=ak rig count (production though is still above the peak rig count level), =nd should see production finally flattening out soon. EFTA_R1_02015964 EFTA02687642 Obama admin also issued federal regulations for fracking mandating=drillers on federal lands to reveal the chemicals used, safely dispose con=aminated water and meet well construction standards. Although only about 5% of US oil production is done on federal =ands, the intention is for states to follow suit. These regulations are ex=ected to increase cost of fracking, further reducing margins for oil produ=ers. In other news, Russia's small refineries may start scaling back as their discount for exporting fuel dec=eases with lower oil prices. This is expected to free up 250kbd for export=this year from Russia. Libyan exports are coming back at a fast pace with =verage exports of 500kbd now, up from 208kbd in Feb as the violence and militia tensions ease. Higher expec=ed supply in front months is still weighing down on spreads with may/jun s=read trading at -1.13 now. Vols were weaker in both crudes in line with the rally.. &nb=p; = W=l (/change) &nb=p; BRE (/chan=e) 1O.5 =nbsp; &n=sp; 48.30% -=.80% &nb=p; 45.50% -2.00% M15 =nbsp; &n=sp; 48.60% -2.10% =nbsp; 45=30% -1.60% Z15 &nb=p; = 36.55% -1.00% &=bsp; 35.60% -0.60% Z16 =nbsp; &nb=p; 27.40% -0.90% &=bsp; 26=90% -0.40% (I am off Monday and Tuesday, will resume EOD Note on Wednesday=.) Metals 3m Ivls = &n=sp; dod change =nbsp; support &=bsp; resistance Al $1794 &nbs=; &=bsp; +$14 &=bsp; &nbs=; $1750 &=bsp; $1800 Cu $6050 &nbs=; &=bsp; +$197 =nbsp; $6000 &nb=p; = $6100 Zn $2054 &nbs=; &=bsp; +$33.5 = $2000 &n=sp; = $2100 Ni $14,145 &n=sp; = +$375 &nbs=; $14,000 = $14,500 Pb $1773.5 &n=sp; = +$62.5 &nb=p; $1700 =nbsp; &nb=p; $1800 Copper prices have brought the base complex up on speculation that=Chinese demand is returning due to stocks coming off at Shanghai and conti=ued issues at the Grasberg mine. In the afternoon a big drop off in the dollar fuelled a rise across the board=but there are rumours circulating that China will lower its rates over the=weekend and that China will 2 EFTA_R1_02015965 EFTA02687643 widen the trading band of CNY. The block=de at Grasberg continues into the 5th day but as there are still stocks waiting to be loaded at the port it is u=likely to result in and short term supply issues. Malaysian Finance =inistry officials are meeting to discuss the 6% tax on metals placed in wa=ehouses from April that is expected to cause copper and nickel stocks to leave the region. Rusal has seen gain= on an improving outlook on Aluminum as demand rises and stocks fall in it= key European markets Shanghai Aluminum on warrant stocks are flat at 112.5 kMT. LME Alu=inum on warrant stocks are up 1.57% to 1927 kMT Shanghai Copper on w=rrant stocks are down 0.93% to 83.3 kMT. LME Copper stocks are up 0.41% to 247 kMT. LME Nickel stocks are flat at 3=4 kMT. Copper Vols are unch, Ali Vols are unch, Nickel Vols are unch, Lea= Vols are unch Zinc Vols are unch Regards, Prateek Please access the li=k for disclaimer: http://globalmarkets.db.com/new/content/3045.html chttp://gl=balmarkets.db.com/new/content/3045.html> Deutsche Bank Extern=l Business Conduct Standards can be found at www.DB.=om/doddfrank <http://ww=.DB.com/doddfrank> This communication may contain confidential and/or privileged information. =f you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communication =n error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this communicati=n. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this communication is strictly forbidde=. 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