EFTA00649785.pdf

From: Daniel Sabba To: "Jeffrey E." <jeevacation@grnail.com> Cc: Paul Morris , Tazia Smith , Vahe Stepanian Stewart Oldfield Adrian Reichrath Subject: relevant market commentary on the Euro [C] Date: Wed, 29 Oct 2014 17:15:33 +0000 Classification: Confidential Jeffrey, given we discussed the topic a couple days ago, I wanted to share this pre-FOMC commentary that advocates for vanilla EUR puts. Regards, Daniel Begin forwarded message: From: "Gaurang Chadha" Date: 29 October 2014 21:48:29 GMT+8 Subject: DB George Saravelos - Thots - Topping out in the EURO.... All focus is on the FOMC statement, but what will matter most is that once it is out of the way markets will immediately shift to the far more important event risk coming up; BIN meeting Friday, euro inflation prints (Spain tomorrow, Germany Friday), to be followed by the ECB meeting next Thursday. Remember that the turnaround in risk appetite earlier this month was driven by a perception of Fed backtracking (Bullard delay taper comments), and the ECB corporate bond headlines. Assuming QE is ended on track, markets will be left to focus on the ECB. With the Fed off the table, the extent to which Draghi satisfies expectations ( = pre-announces corporate bond buys) will determine risk appetite to year-end. Near-term personal bias is that FOMC is perceived as more hawkish, and that they do not acknowledge financial market volatility or inflation fears in a way that changes perception that 2015 is very much "live" (market pricing first hike in October '15) . Remember also that assuming all goes on track, this is a historic day marking the end of QEternity. More than a third of the FOMC statement is dedicated to QE, so there may be more "tweaks" than people expect. This will then leave the burden of "sugar" to the ECB. Personal bias is that FOMC perceived less dovish and market starts building ECB expectations, so we are at decent levels for EURUSD to be topping out. A Simple Trade — Buy a 3month 1.25 EUR$ PUT for - 85 usd pips ... breakeven 1.2415 ....(Spot Reference 1.2738) George This communication may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this communication in error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this communication. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this communication is strictly forbidden. Deutsche Bank does not render legal or tax advice, and the information contained in this communication should not be regarded as such. EFTA00649785