EFTA00857491.pdf

From: "jeffrey E." <jeevacation@gmail.com> To: John Brockman Subject: Re: Edge Master Class 2015 Date: Tue, 05 May 2015 09:59:00 +0000 would you like to move it to santa fe. . aug is great. On Tue, May 5, 2015 at 1:40 AM, John Brockman < > wrote: J.E., I've been waiting to come up with a strong candidate for an EDGE Master Class on the level of our first such event in 2007, "A Short Course In Thinking About Thinking" with Daniel ICahneman. In fact, I have found it. It is Danny's friend and colleague Philip Tetlock, who is prepared to teach "A Short Course In Superforecasting". Edge Master Class 2015 A SHORT COURSE IN SUPERFORECASTING Philip E. Tetlock Venue: California (to come); Date: Summer 2015 (to come) http://edge.orgiedge-master-class-2015 user id: edge_access I password: edginess In his Introduction to Tetlock's EDGE piece in 2012, Danny wrote the following: "Philip Tetlock's 2005 book 'Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?' demonstrated that accurate long-term political forecasting is, to a good approximation, impossible. The work was a landmark in social science, and its importance was quickly recognized and rewarded in two academic disciplines— political science and psychology. Perhaps more significantly, the work was recognized in the intelligence community, which accepted the challenge of investing significant resources in a search for improved accuracy. The work is ongoing, important discoveries are being made, and Tetlock gives us a chance to peek at what is happening. "Tetlock's current message is far more positive than his earlier dismantling of long-term political forecasting. He focuses on the near term, where accurate prediction is possible to some degree, and he takes on the task of making political predictions as accurate as they can be. He has successes to report. As he points out in his comments, these successes will be destabilizing to many institutions, in ways both multiple and profound. With some confidence, we can predict that another landmark of applied social science will soon be reached." PHILIP E. TETLOCK is Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania (School of Arts and Sciences and Wharton School). He is author of Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?; Co-author (with Dan Gardner) of Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Predicting (forthcoming, September); Co-leader of The Good Judgment Project. For your information, included at the link please find (a) David Brooks's NYT OpEd column, "Forecasting Fox"; (b) "How To Win At Forecasting", An EDGE Conversation with Philip Tetlock; (c) jacket copy from Tetlock's new book, Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Predicting (September); (d) Information regarding the Good Judgment Project, part of a four-year research study organized as part of a government-sponsored forecasting tournament. EFTA00857491  As usual, it's already late in the day with regard to booking hotels, and making arrangements, so please let me know asap if you are interested in attending and, if so, what dates work for you. Your presence is necessary and important! We usually begin on a Friday with cocktails/dinner and end Sunday at noon, before lunch. Guests handle their own transportation and hotel room/fees, otherwise, you are invited as a guest of Edge Foundation, Inc. Don't miss this! Best, J13 Inhn 1:Irt mobile Edge Foundation, Inc. 260 Fifth Avenue New York, NY 10001 Visit the EDGE Website at: http://edge.org — "Deliciously creative, the variety astonishes. Intellectual skyrockets of stunning brilliance. —Denis Dutton, Founding Editor, ARTS & LETTERS DAILY please note The information contained in this communication is confidential, may be attorney-client privileged, may constitute inside information, and is intended only for the use of the addressee. It is the property of JEE Unauthorized use, disclosure or copying of this communication or any part thereof is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by return e-mail or by e-mail to jeevacation@gmail.com, and destroy this communication and all copies thereof, including all attachments. copyright -all rights reserved EFTA00857492