EFTA02588113.pdf

From: Richard Kahn < Sent: Tuesday, August 26, 2014 2:54 PM To: jeffrey E. Subject: Fwd: DEutsche JApan View on FX - Rising USD/JPY bodes well for autumn [C] Richard Kahn HBRK Associates =nc. Begin forwarded message: From: Tazia Smith </=iv> Subject: Fw: DEutsche JApan View on FX - =ising USD/JPY bodes well for autumn [CJ Date: August 26, 2014 at 8:37:33 AM =DT To. qb>"Rich Kahn" Cc: =/b>"Vahe Stepanian" Classification: Confidential Forecasting =eakness in JPY to continue (a break out through 105 leading to 110) and =apanese equity strength. Relevant to Jeffrey's short yen, long =XJ Tazia Smith Director Key Client Partners - =S Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc. Deutsche Asset & Wealth =anagement EFTA_R1_01768961 EFTA02588113  Fa - From: Amy Tan Sent: =/b>08/26/2014 10:26 AM GMT Subject: DEutsche JApan =iew on FX - Rising USD/JPY bodes well for autumn Deutsche =ecurities Inc. - Fixed Income Research DEutsche JApan View on FX - Rising USD/JPY bodes well for =utumn 26 August 2014 (1 page/ 160 kb) Download the complete report: http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/1364-EAEC=40435728/DB_DEJAViewFX_2014-08- 26_0900b8c088a967c4.pdf When USD/JPY rises above 110, TOPIX could try for =,450 Japanese =tocks have been amongst the best performers globally since mid-August. =ver the next while, we think that Japanese stocks could remain robust as the yen depreciates. The primary reason is that the risk-on climate =hat facilitates yen depreciation is also a plus for the stock market. =econdly, yen depreciation prompts foreign investors to buy Japanese =tock as it improves the outlook for Japan's economy, supports exports, and makes them do FX- rebalancing in their =ortfolio. Against a =ackground of falling Japanese stocks during the first half of 2014, =here was no shortage of explanations offered for the market's behavior, including Abenomics growing stale, and the Bol failing to add QQE. We =hink Japan's domestic policy is progressing well. Without significant =xpansion of policies, however, the equity prices have been rising. We =re starting to see the verification of our forecast that Japanese stocks should quickly recover lost ground if US =conomic strength is confirmed and the USD/JPY uptrend moves =orward. Once the =SD/JPY surpasses 105, the market should see the rate reaching 110 over =he following six months. Foreign investors are dominant buyers of =apanese stocks, which tend to make the performance of Japanese stocks on a =ollar basis balance with that of US stocks. A simple calculation =uggests that if the USD/JPY exceeds 110 (+5.8%) over the next 3-6 =onths, and the S&P500 rises 5%, then TOPIX could try for 1,450. Taisuke =anaka Autobahn Mobile - now available on iPhone and iPad. Click here to =ownload 'Deutsche Bank Autobahn' in the App Store: =ttps://itunes.apple.com/gb/app/deutsche-bank-autobahn/id646407534<=a> 2 EFTA_R1_01768962 EFTA02588114 Click/ =opy this link into a browser to access the report: =ttp://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/1364- EAEC/40435728/DB_DEJAViewFX_2014-08-2=_0900b8c088a967c4.pdf. If you have any difficulty accessing the =eport, please forward this email with the word 'PDF' in the subject =ine to GMResearch.Subscriptions@d=.com. After 90 days you can access the report on our web site: http://gm.db.com <http://gm.db.com/> . You have received this mail because you have subscribed to DEutsche =Apan View on FX For changes to your current research subscription, visit https://gm.db.com/rsm or email GMResearch.Subscriptions@db.com. Please refer to the applicable legal disclaimers in the full report. =o:p> Mail Reference:0900b8c088a967c4/amy.tan@d=.com This communication may contain =onfidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient (or have received this =ommunication in error) please notify the sender immediately and destroy this communication. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of =he material in this communication is strictly forbidden. Deutsche Bank does not render legal or tax advice, and the =nformation contained in this communication should not be regarded as =uch. 3 EFTA_R1_01768963 EFTA02588115